Mt Kenya to be sure bet or big gamble for Raila, Ruto in 2022 poll

For Deputy President William Ruto picking a running-mate from Mt Kenya region is a no-brainer.

His support contributed significantly to President Uhuru Kenyatta victories in the 2013 and 2017 elections.

And while he may have come to terms with the fact that the president may not back his presidential bid in next year’s election, he hopes Mt Kenya residents will return the favour.

Uhuru's "kumi yangu, kumi ya Ruto" declaration may have inadvertently spelt out the rules of future engagement between the DP and the vote-rich region.

Ruto's allies in Mt Kenya have vowed to see through the president's promise, but have essentially tied his hands with subtle conditions for their support.

Over the weekend, Kiharu lawmaker Ndindi Nyoro invited Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka into the Hustler brigade, suggesting that he would make a "good Speaker of the National Assembly".

Nyoro's words were instructive of the expectations among Ruto's Mt Kenya allies - the deputy president position is a foregone conclusion.

In his quest to succeed Uhuru, Ruto needs to retain the president's base in the two previous general elections.

Recent by-elections in Mt Kenya indicate the DP may have a head-start in the region. But his fallout with the president, and Uhuru's influence, is yet to be sufficiently tested.

That former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has attracted substantial crowds in the region is enough to worry the DP.

So much so that Ruto recently followed in Raila's trail, touring Kiambu in the wake of the ODM leader's excursion of Nyandarua County.

In light of this fact, the DP incurs a risk by picking a running-mate from Mt Kenya, given that he does not know the extent of his influence, or the president's, who shows a liking for Raila. 

Yet, it is a gamble he must take, given the adverse consequences that may follow, which include a fallout with his allies from the region.

That he may have a head-start is a confidence boost. Unlike Raila, Ruto does not have the weight of expectations from other regions.

Politicians from other regions supporting him do so seemingly aware that the DP position may not be on the table.

Potential allies like Kalonzo and Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi may, however, have greater ambitions.

Raila's gamble, on the other hand, is bigger. The ODM leader is trying out uncharted yet strangely familiar waters.

In his four stabs for the presidency, he has not had a Mt Kenya running-mate. Indeed, he has no idea whether having one from the region would pay off.

Raila has had a sweet-sour relationship with Central Kenya. He was the darling of Mt Kenya when he declared "Kibaki tosha" in 2002.

Since his fallout with former President Mwai Kibaki in 2005, he has been cast as a villain in Mt Kenya, which has thrice voted to frustrate his bid.

While Raila may not have the experience of a running mate from Mt Kenya, he does in other regions.

Kalonzo and Mudavadi have delivered Raila significant numbers in previous elections.

Both men have since parted ways with their erstwhile ally in the National Super Alliance (Nasa) coalition and are seemingly pulling further away.

This has created some room for Raila to fondle with the thought of trying out Mt Kenya as an area he could pick his potential deputy, with Peter Kenneth, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and a host of Mt Kenya governors fronted as possibilities.

If Raila's former NASA allies accept to work under an arrangement that offers them a position that isn't the deputy, then his Mt Kenya gamble may pay off. The opposite could strip the ODM leader of the huge chunk of votes his former partners chipped into his basket in 2013 and 2017.

The Building Bridges Initiative Bill, currently in the hands of the Supreme Court, could soften their hearts, but an adverse judgement could leave the ODM leader in his current position.

After the recent mass registration, the region now has more than 4.6 million voters. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission targets about 1.7 million new voters from the region, which would make more than 6 million voters, making it one of the most fertile hunting ground for presidential aspirants.

Kieni MP Kanini Kega, an ally of Raila, believes time is not yet ripe for discussions on a suitable running mate for Raila from Mt Kenya. 

"At the moment, we are selling Raila as a brand. Once he gains enough traction, we can settle on a running mate," says Kega, a subtle indication that picking a number two from Mt Kenya may also be a condition for their support.

"We are not confined to positions but the ability of him to deliver to the Mountain people. We have no doubt he will get over 80 per cent of Mountain votes," he adds.

Nyoro, who essentially hinted to Kalonzo that there was no room in the number two position, shares Kega's view.

"Sharing positions is not our priority. The president is from our community but he doesn't help us much. Our focus is building the bottom-up model that will empower wananchi," says Nyoro.

He adds that Raila's chances within the region are slim.

"Even if he picks a running mate from every village he will not get the votes of Mt Kenya," argues Nyoro.

Murang'a Senator Irungu Kang'ata also believes Raila's chances in Mt Kenya are slim, but insists the DP must pick a running mate from the region.

"Ruto has made it clear to all and sundry his running mate will be from the Mountain. This will be his reward to a region which has defied its kingpin and stood by him. It’s not a gamble but a sure bet.

Raila is the one gambling as he has never had Mt Kenya support and his picking a running mate from the region is never a guarantee of reciprocation," says Kang'ata.

Analyst Dismus Mokua posits that Ruto is taking a bigger risk by picking a Mt Kenya running mate, saying that such a person would not add much value to his camp, given his political strength in the region.

"Ruto will be taking the biggest risk by picking a Mt Kenya candidate. If the candidate is a strong personality and can deliver Mt Kenya while Ruto invades traditional NASA areas, then Ruto will be dancing to State House.

"However, this candidature must secure a high turnout, upwards of 90 per cent and secure upwards of 90 per cent of the votes. If this does not happen, Ruto will have a problem," says Mokua.

This situation, Mokua further argues, is forced by the fact that Ruto has not tested his might sufficiently outside Jubilee bases of 2013 and 2017.

"Choosing a running mate for Ruto is a wicked problem. It is a complicated simultaneous equation that must be solved by science and art. It gets complicated because Ruto is unlikely to have his peers like One Kenya Alliance leaders in his team," he adds.

That and the fact that Uhuru may oppose his deputy's presidential bid, the analyst says, may affect the DP's equation. It is different for Raila.

"Raila will not have a challenge picking a running mate from Mt Kenya. He starts the race with solid backing from his base and his peers respect him. He does not need the entire bloc. He just needs a significant number," says Mokua.

"Being an experienced politician, Raila must be having a plan to manage expectations if he picks a Mt Kenya running mate. OKA would rather work with Raila, even if one of their own is not DP, rather than Ruto."