By-elections draw battle lines for Western, Central votes

By Stephen Makabila 

Prime Minister Raila Odinga scored sweet political victory against one of his deputy premiers, but lost to the other in Monday by-elections.

While Raila’s ODM party is seen to have maintained hold in Western Province, home to Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, by winning the Bukura civic seat, it lost in Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta’s Central Province where it supported a parliamentary candidate belonging to a friendly party in Kangema.

Mudavadi of UDF and Uhuru of TNA may be Raila’s deputies on paper, but they are his strongest competitors in the crowded presidential race.

“For keen political followers, the PM’s strategy has been to retain the Western support and at the same time infiltrate central Kenya using all means at his disposal,” says Maseno University lecturer Martin Mulwale.

On Wednesday, Raila described the Monday by-elections in which Uhuru’s TNA won two seats against ODM’s one, as an early indication the two-horse race was shaping up. 

“As I have always said now you can see that the two-horse race is beginning to shape up,” he said.

In the by-elections, ODM’s Reuben Nyangweso garnered 1,850 votes to capture the Bukura   civic seat against UDF’s?Walter Andati 1,195.

For Raila, it was resounding victory against Mudavadi, who until early this year was ODM deputy party leader.

ODM Parliamentary Group Secretary, Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba has been appointed Youth and Sports Minister by Raila barely a week after steering the Orange campaign in Bukura that delivered the victory. The Kangema battle offered Uhuru an opportunity to settle old scores after TNA   candidate Tiras Ngahu, garnered 13,752 votes against UDF’s Simon Mwangi’s 2, 981. The Mkenya Solidarity candidate John Gathogo supported by ODM took 400 votes.

Some central Kenya political operatives, among them former Chief of Protocol in the PM’s Office, Tony Gachoka, have argued that the PM’s successive approaches in infiltrating the region have been wrong-footed.

“It was therefore markedly ironic when the PM joined former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga in campaigning for the Mkenya Solidarity candidate for the Kangema by-election in what is seen as an attempt to make inroads in central Kenya,” he said.

In Kangema, Uhuru conducted the campaigns personally and appealed to the electorate to support TNA candidate Ngahu.

The stakes were so high that the DPM even personally intervened and involved himself in the civic campaigns for Ikinu ward in Githunguri, Kiambu County and Mutira ward in Kirinyaga.

And after winning Kangema and Kajiado North parliamentary seats, Uhuru’s ally, Kajiado South MP Katoo ole Metito was appointed Internal Security Minister.

Apart from the Namwamba appointment, Raila also did some shuffling in Western and promoted Funyula MP Paul Otuoma to the Local Government docket and Kanduyi MP Alfred Khangati from his office to the key Ministry of Internal Security.

However, ODM Nyeri County chairman and Othaya parliamentary candidate Githinji Wangondu said the Mkenya performance in Kangema could be described as nothing more than “dismal.”

Wangondu, one of Raila’s adherents in the region blamed the dismal performance on lack of clarity over the integration between Mkenya and ODM, which had resulted in the fronting of the candidate for the seat.

Gained ground

“It appears the top ODM command contracted Mkenya without consulting the grassroots leadership. That explains why there was very minimal participation from the ODM grassroots leadership in the by-elections,” said Mr Wangondu.

And in Western, UDF has sought to downplay its failure to win the civic seat, amid confusing statements from its leaders.

Mudavadi and UDF secretary general Dan Ameyo said the by-elections in three constituencies and 15 civic wards should not be used to determine the strength of political parties.

The DPM argued that UDF had gained ground with party candidates putting up a strong fight in the elections in spite of losing, but party MPs allied to him are divided over the dismal performance.

Housing Minister Soita Shitanda was quoted saying the defeat shows more work should be done at the grassroots. But Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito blamed electoral malpractices.

A Mudavadi ally, Charles Welangai, said the party lost in Bukura because it fielded a wrong candidate. “The defeat has sobered us up and we are going to put in place measures to ensure we are a formidable force in the General Election,” added Welengai.

While ODM and UDF have been battling for supremacy in Western, other key political parties in the region, include New Ford-Kenya and Ford-Kenya, which fielded candidates for the Kaptega and Kapkoi civic seats in the neighbouring Trans Nzoia   County, with each winning one seat.

“As things stand, New Ford-Kenya presidential aspirant Eugene Wamalwa has insulated Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties. In Trans-Nzoia, the two seats belonged to Ford-Kenya, but we snatched the Kaptega seat,” said New Ford-Kenya   Organising Secretary Juma Mukhwana.