South Africa is faced with interesting times. In the recently concluded elections, the African National Congress (ANC), Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Patriotic Alliance (PA) and the Good Party came together to form a Government of National Unity (GNU).
From the proportion of seats won by each party, it is clear the ANC and DA will be the main drivers of this GNU, with the IFP, PA and Good Party providing peripheral input.
The ANC lost 71 seats to end up with 159 seats in the National Assembly, losing its majority to govern outright. DA gained three seats to close with 87 seats. Together, the ANC and DA have a total of 246 seats, a comfortable majority to govern in the 400-member National Assembly.
In a masterstroke of wedge politics, the ANC decided to include the IFP into the coalition to weaken former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party in the regional Zulu stronghold of Kwazulu Natal (KZN). The PA on its part, comes into the GNU with only nine seats and will only add to the veneer of a national unity government. It will have little power to significantly shift policy outcomes away from the desires of the ANC and DA.
The 2024 election results therefore epitomised the challenge South Africa currently faces. A hung parliament where no single party could unilaterally form government. The new GNU affords the ideological rivals of the past a chance to work together to compromise on government policy, with ANC mainly leading from the left-wing ideological spectrum, and the DA from the right. The three other GNU partners in the IFP, PA and Good Party have limited ideological influence on government policy in the GNU due to the small number of seats they hold in the National Assembly.
In terms of the domestic politics of the GNU and its capacity to provide a new course for South Africa, a lot will depend on the extent to which black corporate elite interests in the ANC and white corporate elite interests in the DA can compromise on spending for social welfare programs like the SASSA Social Grants which in 2025 are expected to go up to R266 billion (about 15 billion dollars).
This is a rise from R250 billion (about 14 billion dollars) from the 2023/24 financial year. These rising numbers will bring the ANC and DA into direct conflict with the latter concerned about ballooning government spending on government handouts to the poor without significant investment into productive sectors of the economy like infrastructure and energy.
The ANC will feel the pressure to continue the social safety net protections to the most vulnerable in South Africa. In the field of energy, painful decisions will have to be made about whether to reinvest in South Africa’s abundant coal reserves for energy or stick to the de-carbonisation programmes of investment in green energy to reduce carbon emissions. Immigration reform and what to do with the close to 5 million undocumented African immigrants in South Africa is an economic, political and national security issue the DA and ANC will need to resolve.
Lastly, the GNU will have to find a balance for South Africa in the major power rivalry between the US and European Union on one hand, and China, Russia and Iran on the other.
-Prof Monda teaches at the City University of New York. @dmonda1, davidmonda.com
