Deputy President William Ruto has made himself the man to beat in 2022. He drives his race cars (political parties) at such high speed that other drivers devise ways of slowing him down.
Although they occasionally succeed in puncturing his tyres, they do not knock out the engine or knock him out of the presidential race. He is currently suffering major tyre bursts, thereby raising doubt about his ability to finish the race.
Ruto is skilled in political scheming and is alert enough to outwit his friends and opponents on the political race track. He helped make YK 92 a political force while campaigning for Moi’s re-election. Moi disbanded YK 92 soon after his swearing-in but Ruto survived the purge and re-engineered himself into Parliament in 1997.
The political bond that Ruto struck with Uhuru in 2002 took a back seat in 2007 only for external forces, mainly selected and targeted accusations at The Hague, to resuscitate it. In the 2007 disputed presidential race, Ruto and Uhuru confronted each other and were jointly blamed for electoral chaos that sent them to The Hague.
The Hague re-united them as victims of political chicanery and they won the 2013 presidential election. Voters, to save them from The Hague, defied international pressure despite warnings of the consequences of choices.
They looked solid together in the first term as they talked of Kumi- Kumi to mean ten years for Uhuru and ten for Ruto. However, Ruto became super active to ensure that his supposed kumi smoothly follows Uhuru’s kumi in 2022.
Careful not to repeat Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s mistakes under Jomo Kenyatta, Ruto did not want to rock Uhuru’s political boat while remaining hyperactive, but something went wrong in the second term. The political glue that held Uhuru and Ruto together melted and subdued differences burst into open through proxies.
Raila’s virtual entrance into government, through the handshake, corresponded with the gradual erosion of Ruto's influence. There also emerged rival camps within Jubilee; Kieleweke that leaned towards Raila and Tangatanga on Ruto’s side. The two Jubilee sides went for each other’s political throats with strident narratives of praises and condemnation.
Finding himself in a precarious environment, Ruto fine-tuned his political racing machines, penetrated political ‘bedrooms’ and forced counter-reactions. His fresh appeal to the under-class stole the thunder from Raila who previously claimed to champion the less privileged. Ruto created class euphoria based on a sense of socio-economic victimhood and started looking politically unbeatable.
He sponsored micro-scale programmes and endeared himself to various religious congregations singing the regional equivalents of ‘Ngai Wakwa’, ‘Ngai Wakwa’ (“My God, My God”). There then developed two reactions to Ruto’s seeming success with the underclass.
First, top government functionaries started ‘inspecting’ projects rather than let Ruto have a free ride. Second, regional kingpins mounted protective counter-reactions and retuned their political vehicles for the race ahead. They even started forming new alliances to stop Ruto, Raila, or each other.
The various by-elections provided testing opportunities for new alliance formations, for different presidential aspirants and political machines kujipima nguvu, and for slowing Ruto as the tyres of his political race car burst. In Msambweni, where Raila’s utterances made the by-election a 2022 presidential contest, Ruto looked good as his candidate won.
Lock out
What followed in subsequent by-elections was a collective exercise to deflate the tyres in Ruto’s political vehicle. Except for Naivasha’s London Ward, UDA lost big. While Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula managed to lock out both Ruto and Raila, the real contest was in Machakos.
Machakos was humorous and effective in sending Ruto back to the drawing board. Wiper leaders used Muthama’s former wife Agnes Kavindu to assert Ukambani dominance by trouncing Muthama and therefore Ruto.
Thereafter blame games in UDA cropped up to portray it as ‘Kalenjin’ vehicle. Muthama congratulated his former wife and Didmas Baraza took ‘leave’ from national politics. Ruto’s UDA was grounded but since the engine is still intact, he is not yet out.
Prof Munene is a senior associate, Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies
