For many Kenyans, 2023 was lived in extremis. It was the country's annus horribilis.
It did not help that the leadership of a neighbouring country seemed to gloat over Kenya's misfortunes. But contrary to naysayers, Kenya is not headed to a cataclysmic failure.
While there is no denying that times are indeed difficult, there are facts and figures that belie the doomsday prophecies.
For starters, there is no slow burn in Kenya. There is no groundswell of popular resentment against the government. There is no explosive revolution in the offing. Of course, things could be better.
And yes, there are calls for the return of mass action known as Maandamano. But most Kenyans know such calls only serve the interests of a section of the political elite.
What assuages popular discontent is the fact that Kenya has a system of leadership renewal. It has regular and scheduled elections every five years. This is the blow-valve the country needs to keep everything on an even keel.
Second, Kenya is a plural society. Its laws allow for the existence of different political parties. Each party fields candidates in national elections which are credited as arguably the freest and fairest on the continent.
There is freedom of expression. Even the president can, and is often publicly upbraided by the political opposition. These are fundamental rights and liberties most Kenyans now take for granted but are not easily accessible in neighbouring countries.
Third, the country has a trusted and independent Judiciary. This was demonstrated several times last year when many rulings were made against the Executive. Noteworthy were those that declared certain sections of the Finance Act 2023 unconstitutional.
The presence of a neutral and independent arbiter is one of the key attractants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). It is telling that the High Court recently restored the ownership of a Sh400 million online company to a Rwandese investor. This was after he had been defrauded by a Kenyan trader.
Fourth, it is not true that Kenya has suffered investor flight more than other countries in the region. The truth is most emerging economies have suffered equally. This is because the US, by raising interest rates, has made its Federal bonds extremely attractive to investors.
These investors have opted to pull out of emerging markets in favour of the relatively risk-free US market. It is possible that there will be a reversal this year in which Kenya stands to gain. In fact, a World Bank report has put Kenya third globally, after Cambodia and the Philippines, in an FDI standout watchlist for 2024. This is a list of countries with the strongest investment momentum.
We are not losing out to other countries in the region. Not by a long shot. Ethiopia has just defaulted on one of its sovereign loans while Kenya is still on track in servicing all her external debt obligations.
Tanzania suffers worse power outages than Kenya. Shippers are now eschewing the port at Dar in favour of Mombasa Port which discharges cargo in 24 hours compared to the 8 days it takes in Dar. 2024 promises to be a better year. Compliments of the season!
-The writer is a public policy analyst
