Available evidence shows that countries with a higher proportion of the population with completed tertiary education industrialise faster and are less poor - a case in point is South Korea with 69 per cent of the population aged 25-34 years in 2021.
For this reason, countries must invest in quality and inclusive education, right from the foundational years. Public education is financed through taxes and direct user charges. That said, the Finance Bill, 2023 has no intention of financing education from any specific levy.
Budgetary allocation to education in the 2023/24 financial year stands at Sh597.2 billion compared to Sh544.5 billion in the 2022/23FY. This is far above the combined allocations of the national government's health, agriculture, security and the presidency - perhaps an indication of the central role education plays in development.
To put Government of Kenya's spending on education in the African context, in 2021 the education budget was about 4.8 per cent of GDP, compared to South Africa at 6.6 per cent, and Mauritius at 4.9 per cent. The two countries are ahead of Kenya in terms of industrialisation, as indicated by a manufacturing competitive index.
Overall, Kenya has over 18.2 million children and youth in education and training. Of these, 14.2 million attend private and public primary and secondary schools, and 562,000 are in Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) institutions.
Enrolment in universities in 2022 was about 562,000 (similar to numbers in TVET) for degree courses. The rest, about 2.9 million, are in early childhood education. From a long-term perspective, the question is what drives the budgetary allocation across the education sub-sectors.
Foundational learning
For example, if the country's long-term policy is to strengthen foundational learning, such as literacy and numeracy skills, then more investments should be in early learning and basic education.
Alternatively, if the policy is to strengthen technical skills and innovations, perhaps more investments should be seen in TVET; and if we want more technologist and research, perhaps we should put more money at the university level. Having a clear long-term investment policy for the education sector will require an emphasis on a targeted programme, but it does not mean ignoring other areas.
The Finance Bill does not provide a clear long-term policy direction for education investment. However, like its predecessors, it attempts to spread budget growth across the four main spending areas - basic education that includes primary and secondary education, TVET, higher education and research, and Teachers Service Commission (TSC).
Teacher budget
In the Finance Bill, the TSC budget is expected to increase by about eight per cent. But a closer look at trends in number of teachers reveals that such an increment is nominal and does not cater for demand for teachers. Instead, it mainly caters for teacher attrition, and perhaps a small increase in number of secondary school teachers that could be explained by junior secondary schools.
This means the thousands of teachers TSC has been hiring in recent times does not translate to more teachers in school. Between 2021 and 2022, for instance, the number of primary school teachers declined by about 0.4 per cent, while that of secondary schools increased by four per cent. We can therefore argue that while the policy intent is to increase number of teachers in support of quality of education, the Finance Bill cannot afford this, despite TSC getting 54 per cent of the Ministry of Education budget.
Higher Education and Research
In the Finance Bill, public universities and research are allocated 20 per cent of the education budget. The university allocation covers both staff costs and direct programme costs. The National Research Fund and National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation draw from this budget. There is no country in the world that has ever achieved its social and economic goals without heavy investment in research and development (R&D).
While the university education budget has increased by about seven per cent, mainly to cater for changes in staff emolument, enhance student higher education loans, and perhaps deal with pending bills - implying the Finance Bill advocates for a 'business as usual' approach for the university education, that of R&D (Sh847 millions) has declined by almost 20 per cent from the previous financial year implying government's low priority in R&D.
This dims the hopes for fostering a research and innovation-driven economy. The R&D financing gap will likely be filled by NGOs and external partners who, in the absence of strong research co-design mechanisms, will most likely push their research agenda at the detriment of the domestic research priorities defined by the ministries. In comparative terms, in Mauritius, spending on R&D stands at 0.3 per cent of GDP, while that of Kenya stands at 0.01 per cent of GDP.
Basic Education and TVET
The other important expenditure areas include public primary and secondary schools under the basic education programme.
The non-salary allocation to the basic education programme is 22 per cent of the education budget, same proportion as the previous year. The Finance Bill indicates a 17 per cent growth in basic education budget, which is partly explained by the inclusion of the State Department of Competency Based Curriculum (CBC) implementation into the State Department of Early Learning.
This includes funding for the country's free primary schooling at Sh1,420 ($11) per student and free secondary school education programme at Sh22,244 ($171) per student, as well as funding the special needs education.
Since more children are now entering CBC and JSS, we are likely to see tensions that will be manifested in poor or inadequate quality infrastructure, and teaching and learning materials. While the Finance Bill has ensured continuity, it does not reflect needs created by Covid-19 such as strengthening systems resilience, addressing the decline in learning outcomes and, most importantly, the much-needed resources to enhance foundational literacy and numeracy.
Finally, TVET has receive an increment of about 10 per cent compared to the last financial year. However, this sub-sector still gets a small proportion (about five per cent) of the education budget in two consecutive financial years. Yet this is a critical sub-sector because unemployment among youth aged 15-24 stands at around 22 per cent. TVET's focus on acquisition of skills sought after in the job market provides an opportunity to tackle challenges such as skills mismatch that hinder a smooth transition from school to work.
TVET provides opportunities for skill development that could ultimately lead to employment. Though the proportion of the budget allocated is low, the budgetary allocation keep increasing every year - an indication of a deliberate policy to invest in TVET.
At this rate, TVET will overtake the university budget in future, a deliberate and perhaps well-informed policy. Currently, enrollment in TVET matches enrolment in universities. What the Finance Bill has missed, just like its predecessors, is the provision for off-campus training, so that more training takes place in the industry, a move that would induce more relevance in skills.
The Finance Bill provides an indication of where education money is going and it is clear that the silent budgeting policy was largely to maintain the status quo - perhaps an indication of the hard times all sectors, including the citizens, are going through.
On the positive side, the observed increments will cushion the system against high prices of goods due to inflation, unpaid bills, staff annual statutory increments and/or deductions. On the downside, it will expose the system to learning crises and low productivity in good research and innovation.
-The writer is a senior research scientist at APHRC
mngware@aphrc.org
