Diaz: European leaders need to look at peaceful solutions to grow trade amid Russia-Ukraine conflict

Over the last three years or so, the Covid-19 pandemic has been perhaps the most stand out feature on the globe.

Away from the pandemic, the US-China tiff has been among the notable of the rest with the latter pursuing global domination whilst battling through opposition including its very quest to maintain a stronghold on close neighbours such as Taiwan and the City State of Hong Kong.

As of personalities, the last five years has been perhaps been dominated by the now-ended reign of US President Donald Trump, the chaotic and sometimes entertaining nature of his style, plus the administration and his seemingly bromance with North Korea Leader Kim Jung Un.

Leadership means a lot to the world economies

However, as the sky clears from what has been a treacherous last couple of years, a new king is rising, one who seemingly ascending to the throne unopposed.

Nevertheless, the new king has had his kingdom, ruling over it with no great attention from the outside until now.

While the rest of the world may have forgotten about the powers he wields, the early days of 2022 shows he is not to be quickly forgotten.

Enter Russia’s Vladimir Putin whose moves in the last month appear to threaten what would be a European sensitive situation, and the world would like to see a peaceful agreement. Meanwhile, Growth of trade and economic recovery is top of every nation and global citizens agenda.

Starved of attention and mention in last few years as other kings and kingdoms take the limelight, President Putin is now undeniably the man in the arena.

The problem with Ukraine

History provides valuable lessons to contextualising the current State of the two Eastern European neighbours.

For starters, Ukraine and Russia were one under the banner of the United Social Soviet Republic-USSR.

Quoting Putin himself, the pair share significant features culturally, politically and linguistically.

Most Ukrainians to the East are for example native Russian speakers.

Russia may have been keen to recreate what would be a new USSR following the fall of the Soviet and the iron curtain in 1991.

Russia sees Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence which it now seeks to re-establish despite the resultant pushback.

Since January, Russia has been knocking on the door of Ukraine in an attempt to deter what is reads as a move by Ukraine to align itself with the West.

Russia has built up thousands of troops near the Ukraine border estimate at over 150,000, equipment and artillery whose deployment has been looking more imminent as the weeks go by.

The threat by Russia has been a message to the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies to keep off what is sees as its gem.

As part of its demands, Russia wants Ukraine barred from joining NATO forever and a retreat by the intergovernmental military alliance formed after the Second World War to deter the very threat of Russia.

Having attained other ex-Soviet States including Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, Russia can proverbially not imagine losing Ukraine.

As such, Russia may appear ready to risk a continental issue to achieve its end of actions.

Even so, while the Western media is buying into the probable invasion, its business as usual for most Ukrainians who have been living with the threat of Russia for the last eight years.

Ukraine's western drift for instance saw Russia ‘punish’ it by annexing Crimea, a region to the South East.

At the same time, Russia has been backing separatist forces in Ukraine’s Donbas region isolation key Ukrainian cities such as Donetsk and Lugansk.

In spite of numerous diplomatic talks, no resolution has come out of discussions leaving the situation just as tense in the beginning with Russia not ready to dilute any of its demands.

No winners

Despite all the tension, it appears Russia may not in the end invade Ukraine. We pray for a peaceful resolution.

First of all, an invasion of Ukraine would for instance water down Russia’s demands to NATO and its peers with the former super-power emerging as more aggressive.

As such, President Putin may only be moving NATO to yield to its demand with no plan for further escalation of affairs.

At the same time, Russia seeks tough economic sanctions that would perhaps, challenge its economy when implemented but also that of the wider European bloc.

For instance, opinions are feeling, that the sanctions would include a delay to the activation of Nord Stream 2 pipeline which connects Russia’s gas suppliers with Germany and which ironically passes through Ukraine.

Russia is seemingly, facing tough sanctions for its annexation of Crimea.

The ultimate sanction on Russia is however tipped to be the isolation of the country’s banking system from the International Swift Payment System which would harbour consequences for the United States and European economies and of course level of global trade.

The sanctions combined with the loss of civilian life and the destruction of infrastructure would result in worrying possible harm in the region which may negate any benefits from an invasion.

While the world watches, some reports, fortunately, state that the US has indicated it would not directly engage in combat inside Ukraine as it rather pursues diplomacy to de-escalate the situation at hand.

Other US allies including France, Germany and Britain have also taken the diplomatic route to tone down aggression from Russia.

Various reports feel, President Vladimir Putin is seemingly looking to take advantage of what appears to be certain issues, in certain international relations.

For instance, Europe is seemingly searching for a strong inspiring leader following the retirement of Angela Merkel while the US is only but panel beating its image in the international scene after its humiliation and that of allies in Afghanistan last year.

The global trade agreements and free and growth of private sector investment look forward to a stronger collaborative peaceful environment.

The next steps by leaders, authorities and Nations governments, going forward need a lot of care towards life, healthcare and recovery of business.

Chris Diaz

Business leader