Law of unrelated things at play in political events

In the controversial 2005 book, Freakonomics, the authors explore the ‘law of unrelated things.’ This is the phenomenon where seemingly unrelated things somehow appear to have a connection. For example ice-cream sales and murder rates in New York were directly proportional to each other. When one went up, so did the other.  But upon further reading, one discovers that the relationship between these things does not necessarily translate to causality - the idea that one factor caused the other to happen. They are only related because they have something in common. When it comes to the ice-cream sales and the increased murder rate - what they have in common is the warm weather. Research showed that in the summer, more people spent time outdoors and being out and about increased incidences of crime. In warm weather, more people naturally bought ice-cream.

This is how political events must be examined. If the events are not directly related, such that one event is causing the other to happen, then it means they just have something in common. The law of unrelated things applies. The events must therefore have a ‘lowest common denominator’. If they do, then we can make interpretations of intentions, and make predictions of the political player’s coming actions. 

Lately, two political events have happened: the rapid disintegration of IEBC and the apparent re-kindling of the political ‘dynasties’. What do these events have in common? We can make an educated deduction. The most obvious thing they have in common is the 2022 succession. More specifically, the common denominator is the plan to undermine the future candidate who currently holds the highest presidential potential, William Ruto. When Raila Odinga went to consult with former President Moi, we thought of a re-awakening of the political dynasties. The assumption was that they wanted to keep Ruto, who is a non-dynastic and threatening element, out of the presidential equation. 

Dynastic elements

But that is not necessarily true. The intention may not be to scheme against Ruto’s participation in the race. It may be to change the parameters of the race. This is how this meeting is related to the IEBC’s ongoing dramatic collapse. If the dynastic elements have something to do with the sudden unraveling of the IEBC, then they will definitely have something to do with its re-construction. The IEBC is important for two reasons. The first is the commission’s role in overseeing a referendum. The referendum, which will be done in the pretext of ethnic inclusion, will be about the expansion of the Executive from President and Deputy President to the addition of Prime Minister and deputy PMs. If successful, it will water down Ruto’s presidency. For the dynasties, it will make him a puppet president whose control strings are pulled by the dynasty-friendly Prime Minister and other people placed in strategic positions. This way, Uhuru will keep his promise of backing Ruto for the presidency, and the support of the Gema nation will be fulfilled. 

The second critical thing about the IEBC is the upcoming review of constituency boundaries. This is to be done after the 2019 census, which could be electorally game-changing. A manipulated IEBC has the ability to make dynastic elements appear numerically powerful. This is a sophisticated and strategic form of gerrymandering. All political events, especially those happening in the same time period almost always have a least common denominator. For the next four years, 2022 will be a recurring common factor that explains many political occurrences. In fact, between now and 2022, a lot will happen. The law of unrelated things could be panning out right under our noses but we will miss it, because our minds will refuse to make a connection between ice-cream and murder.  I could be terribly wrong, but then again I could be painfully right. 

- The writer is a PhD candidate in Political Economy at SMC University. maritim.dc@gmail.com