Analysis: What does Miguna’s return mean in a ‘reconciled’ Kenya?

Miguna Miguna’s homecoming is certainly victory for democracy and the rule of law. Bundling a Kenyan into a flight while still in flip-flops wasn’t the best way to market brand Kenya as a bubbling, modern democracy.

His return is, therefore, slap on the face of executive fiat and a firm NO to the possibility of slipping back into the dark days of dictatorship.

So much for the silver lining. Depending on where you stand on the saga, Miguna’s return might throw a spanner into the Uhuru-Raila rapprochement. Or boost for the quest for electoral reform. Or amount to hot air.

The March 9 deal between the scions of two preeminent political families is premised on reconciliation and an appreciation of the hole this country has dug itself into because of ethnicity-driven politics of exclusion. It would, therefore, follow that the duo will try its level best to avoid friction.

Unless Miguna saw the light in Canada in sufficient luminance as to cause a tone-down in the abrasive manner in which he pronounces himself on the burning issues of the day, the Uhuru-Raila détente, especially the Raila side of it, could have difficulties in accommodating him. But that is if he is interested in their business in the first place. And, also, if the two sides are interested in him at all.

There is nothing to indicate that any light was seen. On learning of the Uhuru-Raila fence-mending, Miguna went online with a scathing attack of what Harambee House described as bridge-building.

“Mr. Odinga’s unilateral, irrational and erratic decision to betray the fight for electoral justice, the culture of impunity and the flagrant abuse of human rights that have become routine under the illegitimate regime of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto cannot be justified,” he said in a statement issued from Toronto, Canada.

It is this Miguna that Raila, his confidant James Orengo and a battery of lawyers unsuccessfully fought to have allowed into the country after he refused to apply for a Kenyan visa, insisting that a court of law had ordered his unconditional return to Kenya.

Orengo would condemn the state’s act and subsequent futile attempt to deport Miguna to Dubai as the hallmarks of a banana republic. Raila is reported to have watched the events forlornly.

This sort of confrontation will certainly subject the Raila-Uhuru pact to strain tests because Raila cannot afford to be seen as abandoning his people while Uhuru is not about to entertain elements who maintain his presidency is illegitimate.

 Barring Raila’s quest for justice, his presence and that of other NASA notables at the airport can only be seen as indicating that there is room for the returnee in the crumbling edifice that used to be National Super Alliance, NASA.

A Miguna presence on the Raila side could create uneasiness on the Uhuru trenches as it did on the Mwai Kibaki’s when the Raila-William Ruto axis and the Mwai Kibaki-led PNU haggled over power-sharing after the 2007/2008 post –election violence.

As Raila’s adviser on constitutional and coalition affairs, Miguna drove a hard bargain in order to secure more positions in the government for his boss’s bloc. And that included equality in the size of hotel rooms for the two principals as well as a sitting arrangement that didn’t project Kibaki as Raila’s senior. His critics accused him of pettiness, conveniently overlooking the power of psychological games at negotiation tables.

It is almost certain that the returned Miguna will try to revive NASA’s National Resistance Movement that was meant to push for electoral justice after the disputed 2018 polls, which push through the Peoples’ Assemblies has been called off to make way for the Uhuru-Raila peace-making.

Buoyed by the international exposure that his deportation inadvertently created, Miguna caught the attention of certain “pro-change” groups in the West which might not be averse to financing pro-reform forces in Kenya.

Last week, a German MP asked the Government of Kenya to guarantee Miguna Miguna's safety when he flies back into the country today.

In a letter to Kenya's Ambassador to Germany, Joseph Magut, Dr Gregor Gysi, a member of the German parliamentary group called Die Linke, said Dr Miguna was concerned that his safety in Kenya could not be guaranteed.
He further asked the Government to treat Dr Miguna in accordance with human rights as he has a right to live in Kenya.”

But Miguna could be returning to a Kenya whose main antagonistic ethnic blocs have reflexively accepted their leaders’ handshake and forgotten their differences. This could deny any political mobiliser a substantial chunk of the critical mass needed to bring about political reform

It temporarily happened when Raila’s NDP was swallowed by Daniel arap Moi’s Kanu. It happened when Raila’s ODM and Kibaki’s PNU signed a peace deal in 2008.  It could happen again.