Food: Reason many feel political class has left them behind

Food security is at the heart of every country’s policy. It has been said that agriculture is the backbone of our economy, and rightfully so because if we look at the construct of the economy, agriculture takes the lion’s share. However, agriculture has for many years been a contributor, and not a driver, of our economy.

While there is a thin line between contributors and drivers – they are all sectors that make up of the economy - contributors are those sectors that account for the larger portion of the GDP, while the drivers are those sectors with the highest GDP growth. More specifically, the top three contributors in 2016 were agriculture (22 per cent), manufacturing (10 per cent), and real estate (8 per cent).

On the other hand, the top three drivers were transport (14 per cent), hospitality (13 per cent), and ICT (11 per cent). Compared with the average GDP growth rate of 5.8 per cent in 2016, the top three economic drivers had double-digit growth while the top three economic contributors had than 2 per cent growth, and therein lies the problem of inclusive economic growth.

Talk has been that while the economy has been growing since 2002, common folks do not feel it. According to FAO, agriculture contributes close to 80 per cent of Kenya’s employment directly and indirectly. It also accounts for more than 65 per cent of our foreign exchange earnings. For a sector that has stagnated in growth, it is understandable why many people would feel left out in the growth.

Reliance

For a long time, Kenya has depended on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. This has increasingly become unsustainable with a growing population, given that only 11 per cent of our land mass is arable, shared between cash crops and food crops. The area under irrigation is at a low of 11,000 hectares. With a burgeoning population, this cannot guarantee the future of food security in Kenya. It was, therefore, welcome that the Jubilee re-election manifesto proposed ambitious policy interventions on food security.

The Government promised to construct 57 dams aimed at food production through irrigation. The construction programme will support small-holder agricultural irrigation and work with the private sector to enhance commercial agricultural production on at least 1.2 million acres. In order to secure the gains of rain-fed agriculture, a reforestation programme to increase forest cover from 7 per cent to 10 per cent will be instituted.

These are ambitious plans worthy of support. This is important because as the national government institutes these programmes, agriculture is a devolved function, but not exclusive to county governments. The Jubilee manifesto’s plan on the one-county-one-product initiative is well informed by comparative advantage economics. This will enable counties to produce what is best suited for their climates.

Elaborate planning

The Jubilee manifesto also promised to create a food acquisition programme, with the mandate to ensure the Government buys 50 per cent of its food requirements from small holder farmers. The Government, being the biggest consumer of goods and services, is rightfully placed to do this.

This will not only help solve the food security problem, it will also have a multiplier effect in other sectors of the economy. By so doing, the incomes of small holder farmers will inevitably increase and other value chain players will benefit from income generating activities. This also speaks to other macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, whose main driver is food prices.

This is an ambitious plan that will touch on many socio-economic and political facets. This in a ways mirrors the 1976-1980 five-year plan in the former USSR that shifted resources and political will to food production, only this will give more Kenyans the latitude to make investments along the agricultural value chains. The food acquisition programme will especially be instrumental in price stabilisation, which has bedevilled agriculture in Kenya over the years.

If this translates to national average GDP growth in agriculture alone on the minimum, and this plan has every reason to achieve this, mwananchi will feel the effect of economic growth through food security and increased small holder farmer disposable income. This speaks to Millennium Development Goal number one on poverty reduction. Poverty is more than the lack of income and resources to ensure a sustainable livelihood.

Through increased food production, the government will solve the problems of hunger and malnutrition. Through increased disposable income from agriculture production, smallholder farmers and value chain players will also be in a position to afford healthcare and education.

Mr Karugu is a management consultant (Strategy and Analytics) based in Nairobi. fkarugu@revamp.co.ke