Will Raila election boycott lead to his political retirement?

Did NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga commit a political hara-kiri with his decision to boycott the October 26 re-run?

The NASA leader may have, as the Japanese say, disemboweled himself politically by making his decision 24 hours before the High Court pronounced itself on the candidature of Ekuru Aukot.

As he pulled out of the presidential race, Raila was sure the poll would not go ahead given the Supreme Court ruling on September 1 that nullified the August 8 election. But making his ruling on October 11, Justice John Mativo asked the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to reinstate Aukot as one of the candidates. Indeed, the judge proceeded to allow the other presidential candidates who had participated in the August 8 contest.

Rich lessons

That ruling must have scuttled things for the NASA candidate and thrown his plan into disarray. It may also have put him in the same position as some of his political allies on the continent who chose the perilous path of boycotting elections to force changes or express their displeasure in the manner they were being organised.

Just for the record, Raila is not the first Kenyan politician to boycott a presidential contest. Former cabinet minister and FORD-Asili chairman Kenneth Stanley Njindo Matiba did it in 1997 to protest what he termed was the rigged 1992 general election in which he emerged second. Daniel arap Moi, who was the incumbent, had trounced a crowded opposition field that included Raila’s father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Kenya’s third President Mwai Kibaki.

An angry Matiba vowed to boycott Parliament to protest the ‘theft’ of his victory and for five years he made technical appearances in Parliament to merely preserve his Kiharu parliamentary seat.

At some point, Raila and then Kikuyu MP who is now the IEBC lawyer Paul Muite also entertained the idea of boycotting the 1997 General Election. However, Raila and Muite backed out on realising that their opposition colleagues would be in the contest.

Matiba made good his threat and since then he has faded into political oblivion amid poor health caused by his detention in the struggle for multi-party politics. His attempt to make a comeback ended in humiliation when he garnered a meagre 8,000 votes, losing to minnows including evangelist Pius Muiru.

But Africa is full of rich lessons on the political path Raila has taken. In Burkina Faso, the opposition parties boycotted the 1991 presidential contest in the hope that they would force the incumbent Blaise Compaore to accommodate their demands. He ignored them, carried out elections and was declared the winner.

The country was carrying out the first presidential election since 1978 and the boycott led to a poor turn out of voters at just 28 per cent.

The following year in Ghana, opposition parties boycotted the country’s parliamentary elections set for December 29. It did not stop the then ruling party, the National Democratic Congress from taking 189 seats of the 200 contested.

Across in Mali, the opposition leaders boycotted the May 11, 1997 presidential elections to force changes.

President Alpha Oumar Konare of the Alliance for Democracy in Mali went on to win the election by 84 per cent of the vote. However, the election was hit by a poor turn out too.

Raila’s friend and former Zimbabwe Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai boycotted the last election in his country to force reforms on strongman Robert Mugabe’s government. He was ignored and ZANU-PF proceeded to win the election.

Tsvangirai is still battling with himself whether to plunge in next year’s General Election or boycott it as well. Few Zimbabweans care whether he will be in the race or not.

Closer home, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term on July 21, 2015 despite controversy over whether he was eligible to be in the race. The opposition had disagreed with the president on whether he should be in the race after serving two terms in accordance with the country’s constitution and the 2005 Arusha Peace Agreement.

Ongoing protests

On June 10, 2015 various opposition leaders had called for a boycott of the election, rejecting the notion of holding the vote in the face of ongoing protests and controversy regarding Nkurunziza’s re-election bid. Come June 26, at least 17 opposition parties announced that they would boycott the election including the key opposition candidate Agathon Rwasa.

Just like in the Kenyan case, despite the opposition candidates pulling out of the race and calling for a boycott, their names remained on ballot papers.

After the polling, the electoral commission announced on July 24, 2015 that Nkurunziza had won the election with 69 percent of the vote. Rwasa was placed second and credited with 18 percent despite calling for a boycott.

However, the most recent boycott is across the border in Tanzania where Raila’s friend, President John Pombe Magufuli, locked out the opposition during the repeat election in Zanzibar.

Zanzibar presidential candidate and leader of main opposition party, Civic United Front, Seif Sharif Hamad, declared himself winner of Zanzibar’s presidency in October 2005 before results were announced. Hamad ruled the October election was free, fair and valid, and without grounds for nullification.

But Tanzania’s electoral commission nullified elections on the island famed for their cloves and called for a repeat.

Magufuli, of the ruling CCM party, endorsed the new elections, a move seen by some as giving Zanzibar president and fellow CCM party member Ali Mohamed Shein another chance at staying in office.

Hamad made good his threat to boycott the repeat election. Magufuli and CCM went ahead with the election that resulted in Shein emerging victorious. Jubilee and President Kenyatta seem determined to hold an election despite the hostile environment in various parts of the country, including what is former Nyanza province, Mombasa and slum areas of Nairobi.

The gazettement of October 26 as a public holiday is testimony to the determination by the ruling party to ensure the election takes place despite calls for demonstrations on the same day. Unless he withdraws by signing the necessary form as stipulated by IEBC, Raila will be on the ballot papers. However, should he present the papers for his withdrawal, there will be seven other candidates taking on the incumbent. Never mind their ability to mount any form of opposition.

Is Raila likely to fade out politically given his boycott? At 72, he is no longer the Young Turk he was in 1992 when he first plunged into elective politics as MP for Langata. At the next election, he will be staring at his 80th birthday.

Many of his age-mates on the continent have attained their dream of becoming presidents by that age. There are rare exceptions among them South African freedom icon, the late Nelson Mandela.

The writer is a journalist and communication specialist based in Mogadishu. osman.daud66@gmail.com