What Jubilee and NASA must do to win the forthcoming election

As President Uhuru Kenyatta and NASA candidate Raila Odinga prepares for another battle royale for votes in next month’s presidential poll, they should bear in mind a few fundamental issues, especially on how they can mobilize the youth to turn out in large numbers and give them an edge in the hotly contested race.

In the words of lawyer turned politician Abraham Lincoln, “Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe,” the two candidates should prepare a bullet proof plan first before engaging in the forthcoming game of political wits.

A review of election outcomes around the world show that voter turnout declines significantly during both and run-off elections.  Looking at run-offs across the world, voter turnout declined by at least 30 per cent. 

In the just concluded election, over 15 million Kenyans voted, representing 78 percent of the registered voters. If the above theory was to hold water, then we should expect a lower voter turnout for the youth. 

Deferring an election is not helpful because the longer the wait between the initial primary election and the , the higher the decrease in voter turnout between elections.  Research has shown that primary elections with a gap of more than 30 days had a median decline in voter participation of 48.1 percent, while those with a gap of twenty days or less had a median decline of 15.4 percent.

What is less often acknowledged is that while there are a number of factors that predict voter turnout, there’s one that stands out and could hold the key to long-term solutions: age demographic.

If you are over 30 years old, you probably voted in this past presidential election. If you are between 18-29, you probably did not. In various studies conducted in the US, older voters’ turnout is almost 30 percent points higher than those aged 18-24 years.

An exit poll conducted by TIFA Research during the 8th August 2017 elections,  found that majority of  first time voters were more likely to be aged 18-35 years.

A review of the IEBC register shows that the youth aged 18 to 35 years constitute 52 per cent. Those aged 36-55 years constitute of 35 per cent of the voter register whilst 14 per cent are over 55 years. 

This implies that there are more youth, and to be exact they are 9,930,315 strong. If there is a low turnout amongst the youth, this could result in a significant shift in voting patterns. 

There is a close correlation between having a family and voter turnout when it comes to youth voters.  The delay in voter turnout among youth has been linked to their late transition to family life compared with earlier generations. In other words, if the youth has a family, the higher their propensity to vote. Messaging on voter turnout should be packaged for single youth who feel that they have nothing to lose if they do not turn out to vote.

Interesting observations have been made in regard to youth in school vis a vis those out of school, with the former having a higher propensity to vote.  It appears that when the youth are in an institution, there is a collective push (whether formal or informal) to vote. In a political campaign strategy, the focus should be to engage out-of-school youth to vote.

In various political polls conducted by TIFA Research, we have established that the issues that matter to young voters are not that different from older voters. The high cost of living and unemployment top the list followed by corruption and lack of water.  The challenge at hand to political strategists is how to communicate and package the same message differently to different voters segments.

An innovative way of engaging the youth could include the use of an interactive voting app.  Prior to the 8 August elections, an innovative application was developed that allowed NASA supporters to key their names into an app and subsequently, they would be given a new name for “Canaan”. 

One youthful female was informed by the app that her new name would be “Mary of Arimathea”. There were also conversations where a few youth were informed that their new names were missing from the list and you can only imagine the discussion around this. This just goes to show that there is room for interactive applications to motivate the youth to vote.

Interestingly, Radio and TV have been singled out as culprits who have a negative impact on youth voting. These two channels emphasize on the conflicts in politics.  Newspaper reading and credible news sites have a strong positive impact on the electoral participation of the youth. Watching TV and listening to radio do not have clear effect.  Unfortunately, the youth in Kenya do not have a strong culture of reading newspapers and targeting them through this platform may not be enough. 

There a good lessons to be borrowed from Canadians whose youth voter turnout grew from 55 percent in 2011 to 67 percent in 2015, according to a study commissioned by Elections Canada.  In the 2000’s, Elections Canada launched the “Student Vote” initiative which allowed youth under the age of 18 to experience federal process through a parallel election at school. This process contributed to increased voter turnout.

As the presidential candidates battle it out, each will strive to develop winning war strategies. As they do this, they need to ponder over the famous words of Sun Tzu, the author of The Art of War, “move only if there is a real advantage”.

Ms Ireri is the Director, TIFA Research Ltd