Raila missed great chance as Uhuru skipped polls summit

Earlier this week, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) put together an elaborate and well executed National Elections Conference. The conference brought together all electoral stakeholders, including politicians, voters, civil society and election observers to discuss progress towards the forthcoming election. The purpose was not only to show that IEBC is committed to delivering a credible election, but also to give an opportunity to stakeholders to provide input into the arrangements for the election.

Unsurprisingly, speeches by Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga, the two main contenders for the presidency, were the most anticipated during the opening ceremony. They both disappointed. For President Kenyatta by his absence and for Raila by his remarks.

President Kenyatta failed to attend the meeting choosing instead to address a Press Conference from Eldoret State Lodge where he was staying while on the campaign trial in the Rift. He, nonetheless, sent National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale, to represent him and read his remarks at the conference, which demonstrated statesmanship.

Raila statement on the other hand was a bitter outrage against the government and the electoral commission. His thesis was that failure of institutions and interference by individuals and the State in the electoral process which have frustrated the desire of Kenyans for free, fair and credible elections is being repeated in this electoral cycle.

Revisiting the painful memories of the 2007/8 post-election violence, he went on a tirade accusing Jubilee of all manner of things including using their record in office to campaign, and noting the inability of the IEBC to enforce the Electoral Code of Conduct. His speech did not in any way speak to a belief that the nation is more important that an individual. In this way, he missed the chance to demonstrate statesmanship.

From his speech, it is clear he is angrier with the decision of IEBC to award the tender for the printing of ballot papers. His argument, which has been ferociously advanced by his supporters, is that Al Ghurair Printing, the Dubai-based company allocated the tender, has ties to Jubilee. Most of the accusations he levelled against IEBC have been brought into question or strongly challenged by various actors. For Jubilee, however, their focus has been to show that Raila had interest in Paarl Media, the South African company which lost the Sh2.5 billion contract, winning the tender.

Not misguided

For now, it is difficult to tell where the truth lies neither is that my purpose here. My interest is to point out that Raila’s comments at the National Elections Conference were not misguided, but rather from part of their well calculated strategy to reject results of the August 8 poll, if he were to lose.

This being Raila’s fourth attempt, we know he will not be satisfied by any outcome in which he is not declared the winner. Evidently, he has worked at it for a long while with his latest achievements being a progressive Constitution with strong institutions. Uniquely, he has had the first electoral commission, under that Constitution, disbanded. Perhaps even more impressively, his new political coalition guarantees him, as we’re told, 10 million votes with which assurance one would hope we could settle down and await the fall of Jubilee. Nonetheless, the attacks on the credibility of the electoral commission continues unabated while Jubilee running around the country looking for votes. An opposition victory does not quite seem inevitable seeing as they appear determined to fulfill Ruto’s description of them as ‘clueless and rudderless’.

Going into such a competitive election, in an unfocused manner and with only the expectation of victory is not only delusional but also dangerous. To restate the obvious, there will be only one winner between Kenyatta and Raila. Kenyatta has signaled his intention to accept the outcome of the election but Raila will not because he cannot fathom the possibility of a loss.

Unsurprisingly, those who were calling on the President to declare that he would respect the wishes of the people, now argue that his statement is a requirement of the law rather than an act of ‘good faith’. In which case, perhaps their candidate could do the same in respect of the law – and possibly a basic understanding of probability. But he will not do so because this would reduce the possibility of arguing that his victory was stolen. Whether he wins or loses in the coming election, we will be the worse for it.

- The writer is a researcher and analyst in Nairobi.

kamau.wairuri@outlook.com