Why Kenyans need to think far ahead

It is obvious that politics will cloud most of the activities this year. Politics is a very important engagement in human life as it determines so much of our living in terms of how the society is organized and the many undertakings that are done and generally how people live in one area to another. Politics establishes or influences the systems, processes, structures and relations within an area. So as Kenyans paying a lot of attention to politics is nothing unusual or wrong. At any rate if we take stock of the last say 300 years we can tell the different paradigm shifts that has occurred here and elsewhere all influenced by politics. So, this year we have to pay a lot of attention on what is happening in politics. As we do so we have to think seriously about the future.

Kenya has a lot of opportunities that need to be tapped and has potential to be one of the richest countries in the world. An hitherto non-oil non mineral rich economy that has gained a reasonable stake in relation to the level of development in similar third world countries is something. We are still a poor country but there is a lot of hope. With discoveries of oil, some substantial minerals and the generally relatively well educated and a hardworking population there is a lot of hope.

But we must be alive to some adverse indicators which raise red flags along the way. The level of unemployment is too high and veering to dangerous levels, the level of corruption is very high among the Kenyan population and in various levels of governance, the tribal divisiveness is quite alarming and the general level of investments and development is not keeping pace with the needs of the country. If you look at statistics on Kenya’s GDP growth, the level of direct investments in the country, the volumes and value of exports, the quantity and quality of jobs created annually and compare this to the rate of unemployment, youth graduations and entries to the job market and the rate of job losses through retrenchments and businesses downsizing or closures it indicate quite some troubling times ahead.

If you look at some key sectors that have held the economy for a while particularly post-independence era ,such as agriculture and manufacturing (even though we are not heavily industrialized but have been doing far better amongst neighbouring nations) and in tourism we have some quite negative indications. Well, we have expanded some sectors such as financial services, wholesaling and retailing and mining but the growth is also not adequate nor is it producing large quantities of quality jobs. Our middle class has expanded and it is growing but the rate is not impressive. If you study countries like China and India though encumbered by uneven growth amongst the population they show signs of a very fast growing middle class. At any rate they are fully aware of the challenges of uneven growth and in China for instance efforts are deliberately made to address poverty especially in rural areas.

If you look at strategies deployed by the two giant nations they are too outward looking without forgetting inward consumption stimulation. Indeed the two have been increasing exporting industrial goods including services such as IT as in the case of India. China outpaces India by far in terms of exports but the two nations are projected to even overtake US in terms of GDP at some stage in not far future. China is projected to do so sooner. Some argue that China stranglehold on political activities and authoritarianism makes some of the policies move faster. But if you look clearly, since the 1980’s under Deng the policies have been well informed and well executed notwithstanding her nature of politics. In areas that impede progress like corruption (which is one of our main problems) China is quite ruthless. It is also keen on trade and really plays very hard to export more. Her imports are mostly raw materials and technologies which they are also quick to copy. It is one thing having an intelligent dictatorship as has been in China and other countries in the past such as Singapore, South Korea and Malaysia and a confused corrupt one as has happened in many third world countries in Africa, Latin America, Eastern Europe, Parts of Asia and Arab world. The difference is quite visible. At the same time it proves a big population if well planned and utilized to produce is a big opportunity not a problem. But only if well planned and well engaged. Else it is a mess! So cleverness is required. Dictatorship or none of it you have to intelligently engage your population and utilize all possible opportunities very well.

But we don’t need dictatorship to develop. All we need is a robust democracy that also establishes strong institutions, structures and laws that impede the destructive habits such as corruption whilst also inspiring and nurturing an environment that creates opportunities for all. Without coming up with mechanisms to grow the economy to another level quite quickly, we are in trouble. I think whoever wins in the coming election especially at the Presidential level has his/her job well cut out. For Uhuru it will be a rendezvous with destiny and time to build a political, economic and social legacy that will be positively memorable. In case someone from the opposition wins, it can’t be any different expectation. Let us not forget sowing a bad seed or letting it blossom like corruption destroys not just present generation but posterity as well. The effects of past corruption and growing as corrupt people has brought the mess we are in – just look at the cry for better wages and poor services in many sectors as well as corrupt politics. Similarly if we ignore and burry our heads like the proverbial ostrich the nasty outcomes will still catch up with us sooner or later. So we have to act – there is no two way about it. The action should be to destroy what is evil, reconstruct, build, protect and nurture a better future for all.

Harrison Mwirigi Ikunda

Nairobi.

THE WRITER IS A RESEARCHER AND CONSULTANT