Factors that will determine the winner of August 2017 election

Kenyans will be heading to the polls on August 8th next year to elect 290 parliamentarians from the constituencies and 47 women representatives from the counties. 47 gubernatorial seats will be up for grabs but the ultimate price will be the presidency. So far its only President Uhuru Kenyatta who has confirmed of his candidature as the incumbent will be seeking a second term. The opposition coalition Cord is currently in negotiation with other political parties like Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC and Isaac Rutto’s Mashinani party to front a single candidate to face Uhuru. Depending on who is chosen among the opposition heavyweights it promises to be gigantic all to play for fiercely contested election.

The elections will be won or lost on the basis of the following factors.

1. Incumbency advantage

Incumbency will be an important factor that will likely help the governing party in elections. Jubilee is perceived to have money to spend. Yes, a lot of cash to splash around. Jubilee has the incumbency advantage, the spending power. Going by what we saw during the last election and of late when all the coalition partners folded into a single Jubilee party; the wealth on display was ridiculously appalling. The billboards erected in different parts of the country have dwarfed those of its opponents. The party, apart from almost monopolizing the advertising space in the media, also has the financial muscles to buy slots on prime-time media programmes to propagate its message.

President Uhuru and his Deputy have been traversing the country lately under the disguise of launching mega development projects flying using state-owned helicopters . The incumbent party also controls the police and other security forces. In a country where agencies of the state owe allegiance to the governing party instead of the state, the “system” works in favour of the governing party. Jubilee, therefore, has the incumbency advantage.

2. Incumbency curse

People often talk about incumbency advantage, but they forget that there is an incumbency curse. The general hardships in the country are not blamed on the opposition. When there is no water, it is the incumbent party that suffers. Unemployment, power crises and any other form of disaffection or frustration in the country have a way of affecting the governing party. Jubilee will suffer incumbency curse and the opposition may gain from it. Jubilee has had its share of major scandals that include the NYS that millions or possibly billions of shillings have been lost. Kenyans are still seeking answers to what happened to over five billion shillings in the ministry of health. This and many more unresolved issues will be raised at a much higher tempo when real campaigns begin officially. Jubilee should know that no party is indispensable; look far afield and see what has happened in Gambia and Ghana.

3. Infrastructure

The ruling Jubilee party slowly building its campaign around infrastructure. Jubilee has borrowed heavily for infrastructure development. They are already bragging about the standard gauge railway, the revival of Pan paper mills, expansion of roads across the country. It is not a novelty, but not all voters are sophisticated enough to see governance beyond the building of infrastructure. For some people, development is what they can see or touch. For some of the rural folks, they cannot be blamed. A farmer in a village in Mumias who wants to transport his farm produce to Kisumu or Nairobi; he cares very little about the exchange rate. Their major concern is the road so if you fix it, they need nothing more. Infrastructure will play an important role in this election.

4. Corruption

Corruption is the biggest sin of this government. Almost all the campaign messages against the government have an accusation of corruption. Kenyans seem to be very tolerant of corruption but corruption will influence the voting decision of some people in this election, especially the middle and the upper classes in the society.

Whereas President Uhuru has presided over a corruption-friendly government, the opposition chiefs have also been mentioned in either one or the other and sometimes have been accused to only raise their voices when it is affecting Jubilee and not quiet when it’s their cronies.

5. Candidate’s appeal

Some people vote based on the appeal of the candidate. The demeanour of the candidates determines how some people vote. President Uhuru has a youthful appeal. It is not in vain when he joins in a dance or caught singing to a Sauti Sol song and other youthful antics. While President Kenyatta has a strong online presence thankfully to his digital team, some of the opposition candidates have a very limited presence if whoever is chosen does not become actively involved in tweeting and facebook, he is likely to lose a huge voting block of young people. How different campaign teams portray their candidate will also earn voters appeal or disapproval.

6. Fallout from Election 2013

In the 2013 election, President Uhuru won with a slim margin. He had 50.51% of the total valid votes cast. He had 832,887 more votes than Raila Odinga. The latter did not concede defeat instead opted to go to the Supreme Court which ruled in favour of Uhuru.

Raila blamed IEBC for his defeat a message he has repeated time and again the past four years and as we get into the election year,Cord is going to remind its supporters of the stolen elections and need to be on the look out.Uhuru on the other hand, however, will want to win convincingly to dissuade the assertion that he rigged the elections. There will be first-time voters, but looking at the general economic outlook and high level of unemployment the new voters (who are mostly the youth) will either shift towards Jubilee or the opposition coalition.

7. Ethnicity

Both Jubilee and opposition Coalition have strong supports among some ethnic groups. Jubilee enjoys enormous support among the communities in Mount Kenya region and most parts of the Kalenjin nation while the opposition Coalition enjoys enormous support among the Luhya, Luo’s, and parts of Eastern and Coastal. It is difficult to say who has the edge in swing regions like Kisii, Nairobi, and Maasai regions. If either party suffers voters’ apathy in its stronghold, the opponent will greatly benefit. Each side has a perceived regional kingpin, a point man who will have to work hard to convince the electorate why their side is the best.

8. The running mate factor

How the opposition coalition balance out this delicate arithmetic, may help it to snatch some sizeable votes from Jubilee. We already know that Deputy President William Ruto will still be Uhuru’s running mate hoping that this arrangement will keep the Rift Valley votes intact in Jubilee's basket. The onus to find someone who will match Ruto will be opposition’s difficult balancing act as they put together a team that will hopefully dislodge Jubilee from the state house. Here all eyes will be on Rift Valley. The opposition may attempt to find someone from the vote-rich region as a way to divide the spoils between the two parties. If this happens; Rift Valley will be the real battleground and whoever gets a sizeable number is sure of forming the next government