Impact of Trump's reign on Africa

After Donald Trump’s win last week, a wag quipped that now she is convinced Jesus Christ might come earlier than expected.

Before he comes, we may want to analyse what is likely to happen to us in Kenya and Africa with the controversial billionaire ruling the most powerful nation in the world. Politicians are notoriously pragmatic animals, to use the most charitable words.

They are worried about their re-election and legacy. So don’t be surprised if it turns out that ‘the Donald’ was just playing to the gallery.

If this turns out to be the case, he becomes one of the greatest masters of mass psychology in history,second only to Adolf Hitler.

The thing is that Trump expertly tapped on people’s disgruntlement with the elite rulers in Washington, a feeling fuelled by rapid globalisation.

He identified with the people Hillary Clinton once described as ‘deplorables’. His clarion call ‘Drain the swamp’ resonated with the voters. It is like the protest that swept Moi and Kanu out of power in 2002. Only worse, because it is about to impact on the whole world.

For us, the main concern should be whether this ‘America first’ will lead to cutting US funding on programmes in Kenya which range from HIV/AIDs to electoral reforms and energy.

Or whether Trump will be less concerned with security in the horn of Africa as he goes after ISIS.

The man has expressed his dislike for foreign aid, saying it would rather be used on US farmers and the homeless. Maybe he will cancel foreign aid.

Maybe someone will advise him that the US spends less than one per cent aid from its $4 trillion annual budget, around $35 billion while US agriculture gobbles up over $150 billion, much of it squandered.

For Africa, the worry should not really be if he is going to undo AGOA, a protocol that allows the continent to export some products to the US duty free.

Rather, what should worry is Trump’s dislike for regime change, and ‘his preference for not criticising human rights violation’ as Rami Khouri of the American University of Beirut put it.

America has been in the forefront in promoting the rule of law and democracy. However small the effect, African strongmen have always looked over their shoulders, afraid that someday, the US would call them to account for their deeds.

Yet we have been witnessing the rise of the big-man syndrome in Africa even without Trump. It would be unfortunate if the US were to abandon governance and human rights concerns.

What could we learn from this historic election? First, Kenya is in the throes of mass desperation with the ruling elite, just like voters in America. The Jubilee ruling elite should note what complacency did to the Clinton’s campaign.

This smug belief that the 2017 election is already won is myopic. Unfortunately, unlike in the US where institutions and the political moral architecture are solid, there is no guarantee here against a repeat of 2008.

The anti-establishment movement is worldwide and is being fed on populism, not fact. In desperate times, facts are useless in politics. It is sweeping across Europe like bushfire. The demon of unbridled liberalisation has come back to haunt us.

Trump’s propaganda to exorcise the demons tormenting America’s collective psyche worked superbly well with the electorate.

He became the messiah. These same frustrations can easily be tapped into a political tsunami here.At the global level, will Trump defy international trade policies just to ‘teach China a lesson’ which he blames for ‘taking American jobs’? China did not invent globalisation, liberalisation or regionalisation. They were invented in the west, but they were concepts whose time had come.

They are the logical end of modern economics where labour flows where it is needed most. The west’s stringent welfare policies funded by high taxation reversed the trend: factories relocated to the sources of cheap labour, largely in Asia. China took maximum advantage.

I bet Trump understands this well, being a businessman himself. Perhaps the last thing he would want is to start trade wars against laid-down WTO policies.

Mostly likely, he will quickly learn the complexity and the impacts of such wars on the US. Only an imbecile would pursue the ideas he used to ride to the White House. I hope he isn’t one, as he is depicted.

The campaign mantra ‘Putting America first’ is ok in campaign rallies, but will Trump force Ford Motors and Apple to relocate from Mexico and China respectively? The world waits anxiously.

But the president-elect is already making reconciliatory noises. He said last Sunday that he will be more restrained in office. And close aides have said that some aspects of ‘Obamacare’ will be retained.

It is unlikely the new US regime can reverse the process of globalisation without pulling the trigger on itself. The train left the station long ago, around 1989 when the Soviet Union collapsed.

People everywhere, even in Kenya, are of course yearning for the old good days, back in Egypt where they felt protected by the mother hen state. This is an illusion.