Kenya offers a good study of what politics is able to achieve in a modern state both in a disruptive positive changing dispensation and what it can mess up. Our political journey since independence has rather been checkered. Nonetheless, we have remained hopeful and risen when down by whatever political episode. Obviously the future is always unpredictable and must always put the best mechanism in place to secure it. The context by which Jubilee party has evolved would not only be within the framework of forming a strong party (though necessarily in a tribally divided nation) but also with the next general election in mind.
Political parties contest to win and good ones develop the best strategies possible to have an upper hand in the election. Jubilee Party surely has a head start. CORD despite the big following that they still have is in a dicey situation brought about by the contentious issue of their presidential flag bearer. I would not want to rule out CORD succeeding in the election as there is still time, but at the moment Jubilee certainly has an upper head to win the Presidential contest. The other seats have a lot of dynamics to be wary about. This is informed by the fluidity of the nominations particularly where in several regions the stronger party will have so many contesters for whatever political seat. The fallouts will still occur notwithstanding the new law barring party hopping. The law is good in my view. If you choose to contest in a particularly parity it means you adhere to its principles, ideals and ideology if any. It means you subscribe to the party agenda and therefore the law is timely and good to ensure you stick to what you have agreed to believe in.
What this will necessarily lead to is early campaigns for various electoral seats to secure the desired major party tickets in the strongholds. In Jubilee, stronghold areas like Mt Kenya region and Parts of Rift Valley, it is already assumed that securing the party ticket is almost a guarantee to the various contested seats. It may still be fluid as where strong candidates are observed such as in Kiambu gubernatorial seat the fallout can be dire if not well managed. As for CORD we are yet to see the formation but if they manage to put out potential fires their strongholds tickets will mean a hand to the contested seats. The forthcoming election promises plenty of fireworks considering the relative lucrative nature of some of the seats particularly that of the governor and MCA’s with the later previously considered minor under the previous constitution but now a critical nexus to the county power and funds.
What of the Presidential seat? All eyes are on CORD. What happens in CORD could mean an early Christmas for President Uhuru or a very serious contest. As it stands, Uhuru has one foot to re-election. CORD could easily provide a no contest to the Presidency. Of course this is the desirable position for the Jubilee strategists and supporters. But the circumstances could as well galvanize CORD to a clever strategy. The problem with CORD seems to be failure to learn from past mistakes done by opposition in Kenya and their fiasco that was their 2013 campaigns. Already the huge non registered voters and lack of Ids don’t seem to bothers them, yet this is part of the problem to fix.
Is Jubilee victory in the offing? Of course Jubilee has an easier contest in the Presidency as at now. It all depends on what happens in CORD. Obviously Jubilee is unlikely to be asleep not to keep the status quo of divisiveness evident in CORD intact. For the seats that of Governor, Senator, Women Rep, MP, MCA none of the main parties can afford to take it easy. The heat of the contests particularly on nomination will be very hot.
Where does all this leave Kenya? As usual the call is to be vigilant to protect democracy and avoid the mess we have gone through before. The fiasco that was 2007 presidential election contest is part of the learning points. The challenge is for businesses and the economy to withstand the huge political activities from now to a period just after the election. It’s tough but Kenya must withstand all this.
Harrison Mwirigi Ikunda
Nairobi.
The writer is a researcher and consultant
