Can Mudavadi reap from Orange party's misfortunes?

The wave of political realignments sweeping across western Kenya has ushered Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi into the spotlight.

Currently, the only leader from the region who is assured of being on the presidential ballot on an ANC ticket, it remains unclear how or if Mudavadi (pictured) stands to benefit from the shifting political tide in the region.

Although he has declared his ‘presidential ambitions’, Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula is yet to square it out with his CORD co-principals Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka in the battle for opposition coalition’s ticket. Mudavadi, who has often said he is neither working with CORD nor Jubilee, has in the past months been working towards popularising ANC, and has been touted as one of the likely beneficiaries of the realignments.

Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba, his Funyula counterpart Dr Paul Otuoma, and Sirisia MP Major (Rtd) John Walukhe recently quit their party positions within ODM, citing frustrations. Earlier this week, New Ford Kenya announced its dissolution to join the Jubilee Party, opening wide the hunt for votes in a region that largely voted for the Raila Odinga-led CORD and Mudavadi-led Amani in the 2013 General Election.

“We are yet to see legislators gelling around Mudavadi, even with the recent happenings in the Western region. He (Mudavadi) should have been working harder to make himself more attractive to those seeking other political homes,” says University of Nairobi scholar Prof Winnie Mitullah.

Namwamba, who has said he will be charting a new political course, is yet to announce his next move, even though he has previously said he is still in ODM. Otuoma, despite relinquishing his position, has also maintained that he is still in the orange party. “It is still not clear where Namwamba is headed, but even if he exits and does so with a group, where would he be going?” posed Mitullah.

The director of the Institute for Development Studies at the university says politically, Western has always been a unique region,  and seldom coalesces around one candidate. With Jubilee aggressively making forays into the region, it remains to be seen whether Mudavadi will counter both the ruling coalition’s advances and CORD’s fight to retain the region, by snatching a chunk of the spoils.

According to Mudavadi’s spokesperson Kibisu Kabatesi, the ANC leader still remains the man to beat in the region because “he has remained a stable force,’ making him a more viable option around which other leaders could unite. “He (Mudavadi) is sure that he is going to the ballot in 2017 and therefore is the only certain presidential candidate from the region,” Kabatesi  says.

Leaders from the region who are allied to the Jubilee Coalition include Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali, Emmanuel Wangwe (Navakholo), and Bernard Shinali (Ikolomani). Kabatesi, however, says  those  leaders from the region who align  themselves to Jubilee will lose in the 2017 elections.

“Anybody vying on a Jubilee ticket in Western will lose early in the morning; even leaders angling for positions on a Jubilee ticket know they are not going anywhere,” he says. There has also been talk in some quarters that Mudavadi, who has always tried to present himself as a moderate candidate, may be open to the possibility of working with Raila. But Kabatesi appears to think otherwise. “There is a sense of a growing Luhya nationalism. The region is now saying we are not going to escort anybody in 2017, and anyone coming here to hunt for votes will be in for a shock,” he says.