Sonko’s political survival remains uncertain. As 2017 General Elections near, things are not becoming any better for the Nairobi senator. The problem lies in his aspiration to be the governor of Kenya’s capital city. In recent months, his colleagues in the Jubilee coalition have subjected him to frosty relations insofar as Nairobi politics is concerned. Already, the Nairobi Senator has accused some Jubilee MPs of plotting his downfall by planning to lock him out of the race. He has challenged the MPs to stop practicing tribal politics.
More people continue to show interest in the position. So far, those who have declared interest include nominated MP Johnston Sakaja, former Starehe MP Margaret Wanjiru, Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru, and Miguna Miguna. The current governor, Dr Evans Kidero, will be running for a second term. This will be his last if he wins. CORD has attracted less interest most probably because of the incumbency. An interesting contest is brewing in the Jubilee Coalition, as the path to their ticket becomes more congested.
Of all the Jubilee candidates, Sonko’s candidacy continues to draw significant debate. Questions abound as to whether he is suitable for the job. How he portrays himself and handles issues, attract both admiration and distaste in equal measure. This was evident when he launched the rescue team, a project he later abandoned. He donated its ambulances to the county government. His supporters view him as the most approachable person to whom they can entrust their future. On the other hand, his critics argue that Nairobi needs a smart intellectual with a keen orientation to meaningful development, as opposed to what they perceive as “development of handouts”. Such arguments aside, party politics will play a critical role in determining the next governor.
According to Jubilee insiders, Waweru is the preferred candidate. Apparently, Sonko is not in good books with the party operatives in Nairobi. To them, he is a populist outsider who may not protect their interests. Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen whether the first Nairobi senator under the new dispensation will be the Jubilee candidate.
The question many people keep are asking is whether Sonko will manage to become the city’s second governor if jubilee decides to nominate another candidate, other than him. As things stand, that will be a tall order.
Despite his popularity, Sonko has a higher likelihood of winning the gubernatorial race under two scenarios. One is if he gets the Jubilee ticket. The second, though remote, can occur if he joins CORD and becomes the coalition’s flag bearer. Any other route paints a gleam picture in his quest to be the Nairobi governor.
No doubt, CORD, too, is not willing to lose the seat. Whoever becomes their candidate will definitely have a head start. A CORD candidate pitted against a Jubilee candidate, with Sonko out of the picture, will more likely emerge victorious. The situation will be different if the senator decides to run as an independent candidate, or joins a different party or coalition.
It will be in the interest of the Jubilee Coalition if Sonko runs on a different party, or as an independent, after losing in the primaries. That way, he will be a spoiler rather than a worthy contender for the seat. Such a move will work to the advantage of the Jubilee candidate because their votes will remain intact. Going by the ethnic nature of Nairobi politics, a Sonko candidacy, outside the main coalitions, will divide the CORD votes, not Jubilee’s.
Sonko’s support base cuts across CORD and Jubilee. In the last elections, many CORD supporters voted for him. He may still enjoy that support. However, the Jubilee support is more conservative. They will definitely stick with the person nominated to carry the coalition’s flag in the August 2017 elections. The president and his deputy have sent a clear message to their supporters that the Nairobi governor’s seat must be Jubilee’s to lose in 2017 elections. This means that Sonko will only draw his support from CORD. Nonetheless, a majority of CORD supporters will vote for the CORD candidate. Therefore, from his current pole position, his chances will dimish and he will degenerate into a third force.
As he navigates the murky waters of politics to make his impact felt, the senator must be cautious of his actions. Wrong decisions are costly in politics regardless of how popular one is at the time. Smart politicians guard their moves jealously and remain flexible to the prevailing political situations. If Sonko is uncomfortable in Jubilee, it will be politically suicidal for him to vie for the Nairobi governor’s position. In Kenyan politics, survival comes before principles. Accordingly, this would dictate that he opts for a different position or relocates to another county.
