Opinion is divided on the impact of the Malindi parliamentary by-election outcome. ODM’s Willy Mtengo won with 15,582 votes against Philip Charo’s 9,243 in the March 7 polls.
Political analysts claim Jubilee’s campaign strategy was shambolic and ridden with infighting between the coalition’s loyalists and ODM rebels. On the other hand they say ODM mounted a well structured campaign led by Governors Hassan Joho (Mombasa) and Amason Kingi (Kilifi).
Ahmed Rajab told The Standard on Sunday that “a win for Joho and Kingi was a matter of life and death because a loss meant a possible end to their political careers and now they feel they have a momentum going into next year.”
Rajab added that ODM’s win “has enhanced Kingi and Joho’s stature in ODM and CORD now sees them as formidable assets.”
“Given the amount of money and time Jubilee put in this election, there is no doubt the loss is painful for they wanted to win.”
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CORD and Jubilee invested immense resources in the by-election with Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga camping in Malindi twice.
Some analysts believe the outcome was determined by votes in Shella and Malindi wards which jointly have 33,000 of the 55,000 registered voters.
ODM said the Malindi win cemented its hold in Coast and will define next year’s polls but analysts warn that it is too early to celebrate as the by-election outcome cannot be used as a barometer because there are indications that the CORD stronghold is under serious threat.
They said that despite losing, Jubilee is motivated to penetrate Coast with Kilifi North MP Gideon Mung’aro saying they have learnt vital lessons. Joho and Kingi believe the by-election outcome confirms CORD’s supremacy in Coast and warn Jubilee of a bigger loss next year.
“If anyone doubted Malindi and Coast are ODM zones the result is evident,” declared Mr Kingi who will battle it out with Mr Mung’aro in the 2017 gubernatorial poll.
Joho said CORD will use the Malindi momentum to campaign against CORD rebels.
“From the by-election it is clear that they are not with the people. And we will now take the war to their doorsteps,” declared the governor.
Political analyst Maimuna Mwidau believes that Jubilee woes including corruption allegations against top leaders and controversial land allocations particularly the Waitiki farm in Likoni did not go down well with Malindi voters and Coast region.
Won by a small margin
“The Malindi race was a clear win for CORD and not a tight contest going by the 6,000-vote margin Mtengo garnered against his Jubilee rival Charo. It is no doubt a pointer to how CORD and Jubilee will perform in 2017,” argued Ms Mwidau.
Prof Halim Shauri and Prof Morris Mbondenyi separately cautioned ODM against being too comfortable as their Coast stronghold is under threat from Jubilee.
In the March 4, 2013 General Election immediate former Malindi MP Dan Kazungu of ODM clinched the seat with 16,679 votes against two Jubilee allied rivals who garnered a total of 8,713 votes.
Prof Shauri who teaches at the Pwani University in Kilifi says ODM won by a small margin in the by-election compared to the last elections and therefore performed below expectations.
“It can be argued there was no winner or loser in the Malindi by-election. ODM simply retained its seat as the margin of victory is narrow and therefore the Opposition has some work to do because it is clear Jubilee is making in-roads at the Coast. Although Jubilee did not win, it has made a bold statement,” said he said.
He warned Kingi does not have an automatic upper hand against Mung’aro in next year’s gubernatorial race because “Mung’aro remains a factor in Coast politics” and added that Jubilee must address land and historical injustices to gain support in the region.
Prof Mbondenyi, deputy director at the Kenya School of Law, argued that Mtengo’s win should worry CORD as it prepares for 2017.
“To me nobody won and nobody lost the Malindi by-election. The statistics do not indicate growing popularity for CORD. The by-election therefore cannot be used as a barometer for the 2017 General Election. The gap between the ODM and JAP score may in fact be a pointer that the ground is shifting and that Coast may no longer be a CORD zone,” argued Mbondenyi.
Shauri and Mbondenyi noted that governors have emerged as key players in elections.
“They (governors) are influential and close to the constituents and they can deliver votes to their respective political parties,” argued Shauri as Mbondenyi added that Mung’aro will find it hard to fight against Joho and Kingi.
“If we replay the campaigns, you find that JAP was a little bit weak,” said the deputy director at the Kenya School of Law adding that whereas Kenyatta largely stayed away from Charo’s campaigns with Ruto making two appearances Raila, Joho and Kingi virtually lived in Malindi.
To make an impact in 2017 he advised Jubilee to market its policies in the region and identify candidates early. Mbondenyi said most Coast resident credit governors for the thousands of title deeds issued to residents under the Kenyatta administration.
Other analysts said Jubilee’s campaign was sporadic, disjointed and involved too many people but Mung’aro believes violence “perpetrated by ODM hooligans” cost Charo victory and that most Coast residents distrust JAP while ODM has a better and established network.
Opinion is also divided on why Charo lost and if the 9,000 votes he secured were on account of his campaign efforts or past network within ODM which he quit in December last year.
And whether Willy Mtengo rode on ODM’s popularity to win the Malindi parliamentary seat.
ODM supporters believe they triumphed against a well oiled campaign by the Jubilee supremo spearheaded by President Uhuru Kenya and his deputy Ruto. But the ruling coalition’s allies led by Mung’aro deny they have been vanquished.
“The battle has just began and we are not going to leave Jubilee,” said Mung’aro as Charo conceded defeat.
Kinango MP Gonzi Rai and Ganze MP Peter Shehe used all manner of tricks in the Jubilee campaigns.
The MPs seemingly conceded that it was difficult to campaign in the ODM stronghold.
“We have converted ODM from a political party into a religion. In this region, we now have Christianity, Islam and ODM,” Mr Rai told a Jubilee campaign rally in Malindi ahead of the by-election.
