Do-or-die moment for DP Ruto as voters head to the polls

NAIROBI: Tomorrow’s by-elections in Kericho and Malindi will be a litmus test for Deputy President William Ruto’s political mettle. President Uhuru Kenyatta gave a wide berth to the campaigns unlike during the Kajiado Central by-election last year when he campaigned for the Jubilee candidate.

There, as is the case in Kericho and Malindi, the by-election was occasioned by President Kenyatta appointing the constituency’s MP Joseph Nkaiserry to replace Joseph ole Lenku as Cabinet Secretary for Internal Security.

Again like in Malindi, the President picked an MP from the Opposition’s Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) to join his Cabinet.

However, in Kajiado Central exactly a year this month, the CORD candidate Elijah Memusi weathered the onslaught of the State machinery led by President himself to trounce the Jubilee candidate Patrick Tunui. Perhaps it is the memory of the shame of that by-election that has made President Kenyatta stay away from the two by-elections.

Strong opposition

Senior Director of Public Communications at State House Munyori Buku said the President did not attend because, “The President has faith in the Jubilee team under the leadership of the DP to bring the trophy home.” But in the President’s absence, the DP has spent a considerable amount of time, energy and resources for the past one month campaigning for JAP’s candidates, Aaron Cheruiyot who is seeking to be Kericho Senator and Philip Charo who wants to be Malindi MP.

The Kericho senatorial seat was left open after Charles Keter was appointed the Energy Cabinet Secretary while the Malindi constituency seat was left vacant after Dan Kazungu was was appointed the Mining CS.

Though the elections are important to the Jubilee coalition as a whole, they are a do or die affair for the DP. In Malindi, the Jubilee side is facing strong opposition from ODM’s Willy Mtengo. CORD principal Raila Odinga has spent considerable time and energy to retain the seat.

A victory for Mr Mtengo will affirm that Mr Odinga still holds sway in Coast, a region which voted overwhelmingly for CORD in the last General Elections, but which the government has been courting keenly. For the better part of their term, President Kenyatta and his Deputy have put on a charm offensive to win over the Coastal people.

During their campaigns, they made huge promises, top among them finding a lasting solution to the land crisis. They have issued thousands of title deeds to local residents who had long complained of marginalisation by the national government in favour of the “migrants.”

Politically, it has managed to win over some CORD MPs key among them being Gideon Mungaro (Kilifi North). Furthermore, the President this year spent more than a month at the Coast in an extended working holiday during the New Year celebrations, the longest he has stayed away from Sate House, Nairobi. Tomorrow’s by-election will indicate whether the voters at the Coast have responded positively to these various overtures by Jubilee. CORD has not fielded a candidate in Kericho.

However Jubilee is facing steep opposition from the Kanu candidate Paul Sang in what is seen as an open rebellion against the DP.

In Kericho, the source of Jubilee’s has been its many unfulfilled election pledges, and the alleged arrogance of Jubilee’s top leadership, especially the DP, towards local leaders with divergent opinions. The DP has also been accused of dishing out lucrative government jobs to the family members of his pal, CS Keter.

The CS is also a relative of the Jubilee candidate Aaron Cheruiyot. During a meeting with local leaders in Kericho, angry local leaders told him to his face that he had failed them and the DP apologised.

Tomorrow will determine whether that apology was accepted. What has largely been ignored in this narrative is that the rebellion by the Kipsigis leaders carries with it the undertones of a fight among the Kalenjin sub tribes for supremacy, especially between the Nandi and the Kipsigis, the most populous of the Kalenjin sub tribes.

The 2009 population census indicated that the Kipsigis were 1. 9 million-more than double the population of the Nandis whose population at that time was 949, 000.

Majority of the prominent historical political leaders among the Kalenjin hail from the Nandi, beginning with the anti-colonial resistance leader Koitalel Samoei. Over time, the Nandi, though smaller than the Kipsigis have built huge political capital beyond their political punching weight and the rebellion by the Kipsigis seems to be a reaction to this historic “political marginalisation.”