NAIROBI: The year 2016 marks the start of the final full year before the country goes to the second General Election under the new Constitution next year.
Political alignments and realignments are expected to play themselves out in a year in which Jubilee Party, the vehicle for President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, must either pick or die.
The year is undoubtedly a year of reckoning for the opposition CORD as it makes final push for the referendum drive under the Okoa Kenya banner.
The coalition, which has been digging in for a fight, is likely to continue piling pressure on the government, particularly on the issue of corruption.
The debate on Eurobond proceeds is not yet settled and neither is the fate of CORD co-principal Moses Wetang’ula, in as far as his voter bribery affirmation by the Supreme Court is concerned, settled.
Wetang’ula and Narc party leader Martha Karua must also wriggle themselves out bribery allegations involving British American Tobacco this year.
DP Ruto’s ongoing crimes against humanity case at the International Criminal Court (ICC) will be a closely watched event, given the political ramifications it is likely to have locally.
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Focus will also turn on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) as it prepares for the 2017 election. All the unresolved issues, functionality of poll kits and whether new ones should be procured, registration of voters in the diaspora, legislative reforms must happen in 2016 (See separate story page 26). In the meantime, IEBC must conduct credible by-elections for Kericho (Senator) and Malindi (MP).
The three arms of Government are also likely to have a full plate in 2016, with Parliament expected to speed up the passage of dozens of pending Bills. All eyes will also be watching the Executive to see how the re-energised war on graft, particularly within top government circles, will turn out, given that dozens of cases involving government officials are already before the courts.
The new year will also see new Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) Commissioners led by chair, Philip Kinisu, take up office at a time when the Commission’s in-tray is full of pending investigations.
A change of guard at the Judiciary is inevitable as Chief Justice Willy Mutunga retires in June. His deputy Kalpana Rawal is in court fighting retirement later this month.
The high profile visits of prominent world personalities and hosting of important meetings in 2015 boosted Kenya’s standing in the international arena.
The year 2016 is slated to pick on the gains of 2015 as it hosts the 14th session of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The battleground will also shift to Parliament’s essential legislative reforms are pushed through. The amendments to the Elections Act and the various land laws are expected to dominate parliamentary debate this year.
The leadership of the two houses of Parliament will be tested to limits as referendum drives take centre-stage in their respective houses.
Globally, 2016 marks the start of the final year for US President Barack Obama’s tenure at the White House, with campaigns to succeed him likely to get more intense.
The war on terrorism is likely to be stepped up given the more vigorous involvement of European nations in Syria in the dying months of 2015.
Closer home, Kenya Defence Forces continue to stay put in Somalia even as the fight to contain the Al-Shabaab menace continues. Uganda prepares to go the polls in early 2016, and it is worth watching to see how the Opposition will tackle the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni.
Burundi, on the other hand is headed for a serious confrontation with African Union following President Pierre Nkurunzinza’s categorical rejection of its peacekeepers.
