Budget-What will be Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency be remembered for?

Unlike the past budget making and presentation, nowadays it is a bit more transparent and open but the pomp is gone. We don’t need the pomp and fanfare – it was useless and full of political gimmick. This year’s budget presentation happened while I was dashing between meetings and teleconferences. But I had a glimpse at night on some of the proposals while enjoying a tipple in one of the big hotels before taxes pushed the prices upwards on this ‘sin’ food.

I have had the opportunity to get some comments from diverse industry players who include business people, stock traders, economists, manufacturers, consultants, banking sector players and so on. Well, I can see the optimism but a cautious one. The import of the depreciating shilling, falling exports and a tough business environment probably informs the restraint.

One of the thumps up I have given the government with regard to the budget is on security and tourism. I think the incremental in security budget is warranted. The only problem with it is the absorption capacity, the timeline, quality of the same and the risk such an allocation in that segment attracts in a country which is still grappling with corruption challenges. Moreover, we need to build the capacity to secure the country and her citizens. Outside corruption, insecurity has been the biggest hiccup in moving this nation forward.

On tourism, I have my eyes keenly on this sector in as much as I don’t have a personal direct benefit.  Why I have such keen interest is due to the dangers posed by high levels of unemployment and the crisis this country faces, the untapped potential and the need to expand our foreign exchange income base. Our limited exports vis-à-vis the massive imports should make us very wary. Potentially, our currency will remain at a high risk of further depreciation if we don’t sort out the income side of the equation.

Without going to a lot on specifics on the budget, my verdict is that it has some well thought out imprints. The abolishing of the capital gain tax in favour of the individual turnover tax is in the right direction. So is the setting of new capital thresholds for banks and insurance companies that will push them to operate at a different scale in tandem with the changes happening in the economy? Moreover, the education sector, though still needy, it got something incrementally. We still have a lot of issues to sort out on the sector plus health. We also need re-invention to make the big elephant in the room called devolution really work as it should do for it as it has potential to sort a lot of political and economic risks we face.

But it is in the performance in the economy, success of the numerous Jubilee projects and governance that the reputation of Jubilee hangs on.  Two years is a very short time to make sure you have some reputation to sell and ask for a renewal of the contract for another five years. Moreover, even the matter of re-election notwithstanding there is a reputation and legacy to fight for. What will be Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency be remembered for?  The tricky ball has been passed to your court Hon Uhuru Kenyatta.

Harrison  Mwirigi Ikunda

Nairobi.

Kenya.

The Writer is a Researcher, a trustee of several Ngos - some outside Kenya- and a CEO of a significant trade organization and based in Kenya.