Why it's do or die for Raila party

BY JAMES MBAKA

Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement’s delegates Friday hold elections with potential to put behind them the sting of last year’s second electoral defeat and get on the launch pad for the 2017 presidential race.

The country, particularly its rival Jubilee coalition that Raila insists did not win in round one to avoid a runoff, will be watching keenly to see the lineup that will emerge to lead ODM for the next race, even as it tries to strengthen itself.

Internally, the elections are being taken seriously, a fact discernible in the way the contestants split into two key blocks, all with Raila as the preferred party leader, and campaigned far and wide, sometimes using choppers and planes as is the tradition with Kenya’s big race itself.

Over 2,800 delegates converge at Safaricom Stadium, Kasarani, today to elect the new team that supporters will bank on to revive the flagging political fortunes of the country’s single largest political party.

That the stakes are high in the elections due in less than 24 hours is certain; members and rivals alike are keenly watching how the Orange party handles its biggest assignment after the General Election. 

Block elections

But there are attempts to scuttle ODM’s date with destiny after petitioners claiming to be party members moved to court yesterday to block the elections.

Raila, who is defending his position as party leader, has a huge stake in the outcome of the elections at the National Delegates Convention (NDC).

Raila’s continued leadership of a strong party is essential to consolidate his standing as the first among equals in the top leadership in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) where ODM is a major coalition partner.

It’s crucial that the party comes out stronger, especially if Raila were to make a third bid for the presidency. He lost to President Uhuru Kenyatta when he ran as CORD flag-bearer last the year, in 2007 to Mr Mwai Kibaki and in 1997 to retired President Moi.

However, in the short-term, the conduct of the elections and calibre of leaders picked will determine the clout ODM will wield in influencing affairs and keeping Jubilee in check.

The elections mark the turning point for the party; either towards oblivion, the fate that has befallen parties that fail to overcome the fractious exercise, or a springboard from which a formidable political vehicle could emerge.

In a sense, ODM delegates and party leaders have a choice to either wield a knife with which they will slice the Orange into pieces or nurture seeds for the Orange to further flourish.

Among the first orders of business, delegates will be called upon to alter the structure once again to accommodate nine party deputies — a proposal that has split the party.

The delegates will today be required to decide on two resolutions by the party’s NDC, the top decision making organ of the party, then move over to the poll itself.

The National Governing Council (NGC) which met a week ago, proposed to the NDC to adopt an expanded leadership structure to create nine more positions; two each for the deputy party leader, deputy chairperson, deputy treasurer and three positions for the organising secretary.

The outgoing Secretary General Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o will table the proposal to amend the party’s constitution to allow for the expanded leadership.

At the gymnasium, which has seen many epic political battles, including the merger of Kanu and Raila’s defunct National Development Party in 2002, history might be on the verge of repeating itself, like in the 2007 when ODM chose to create two party leaders’ positions to calm rivalry between Mr William Ruto and Mr Musalia Mudavadi. In the 2002 event, Raila joined Kanu and was made Secretary General at the stadium, taking over from then long-serving Joseph Kamotho.

In 2007, ODM tinkered with its structure, creating two posts for deputy party leader to accommodate Ruto and Mudavadi after bruising campaigns for the party’s presidential ticket.

Regional balance

Nyong’o, who is not defending his seat, will also seek the mandate of NDC for the NGC to fill the new positions after the election to meet constitutional requirements for gender, generational and regional balance among other interests.

A group allied to Nominated Senator Dr Agnes Zani, who is seeking the position of secretary general, has backed the creation of more seats saying it will ensure regional and gender balance.

The camp includes aspirants like Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya (deputy party leader), Funyula MP Paul Otuoma (chairman), Homa Bay Senator Otieno Kajwang’ (deputy chairman) and Kitutu Masaba MP Timothy Bosire (treasurer). The team that includes Raila’s allies is also rooting for the acclamation method of voting at the NDC, as opposed to secret ballot.

A rival faction has, however, insisted that the elections must be by secret ballot and warned of a boycott if voting is by acclamation. The team has also vowed to block the proposal to create more seats, saying it’s designed to reward losers at the ballot.

In the team are Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba (secretary general), Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho (deputy party leader), Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok (chairman), Eldai MP Adan Keynan (deputy chairman),  Bomachoge Chache MP Simon Ogari (treasurer) and Christine Lemein (secretary for special interests).

Both the party and the national Constitution require that not more than two-thirds of leadership positions be occupied by either gender.

The delegates will then decide on the method of electing the new leadership, expected to be a blend of generational interfaces to ensure both retention of institutional memory, and re-energising of the party with youthful blood.

ODM’s elections and nominations rules say that “secret ballot shall be recommended for matters of voting at the NDC”. The Judy Pareno-led National Elections Board (NEB) has rooted for secret ballot, but they have not explained whether clerks who would conduct the elections had been trained or ballot boxes secured.

The 10-member body argues that the elections should be held by secret ballot to ensure the process is free from manipulation and reflect the popular will of the party.

“We are recommending to the NDC that delegates adopt secret ballot to choose their new office bearers, but if they decide to go a different way, they will still be within the constitutional provisions to adopt a method they prefer,” Nyong’o said during the Press briefing on the preparations for the elections.

Yesterday Namwamba’s camp alleged a plot by opponents to ferry 1,500 underlings to Kasarani to cause mayhem and disrupt the elections.

He termed the alleged scheme “an act of cowardice by competitors who had sensed defeat.”

Transparent process

“ODM will lack the moral authority to castigate the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission if it cannot manage internal elections through a free, fair, and transparent process,” Namwamba warned.

Namwamba, Nanok and Keynan, who spoke when they met Nairobi delegates at Shade Hotel in Karen, Nairobi, alleged that the NEB was secretly calling county chairpersons to influence them. But reacting to the claims, ODM’s Executive Director, Mr Magerer Lang’at, said only accredited delegates would be allowed into the gymnasium.

“We will not allow people who are not genuine delegates to mar our elections. We have made sufficient security arrangements to ensure not only free, fair and transparent elections but also a peaceful process,” Magerer assured.