What next for South Africa after Mandela’s passing?

By Machua Koinange

South Africa: Nelson Mandela now rests peacefully for eternity in Qunu, in Eastern Cape. But the bigger question is; what will be written in the next great chapter for South Africa after the icon of freedom took his last bow?

To analysts, there is a cloud of uncertainty wafting over the velds, enveloping this beautiful but fractured nation after close to 50 years of apartheid.

Can the country remain cohesive enough or will it go the Zimbabwe way? Should we expect scenes of blacks swarming into white farms and occupying them or will the country hold together?

From across section of many South Africans, they remain stubbornly optimistic that the best years are ahead. And prophets of doom waiting for the country to implode could be greatly disappointed.

After all, Mandela was the glue that held the nation together. He was the ultimate symbol of reconciliation and he carried the price like a badge of honour. It included 27 years in prison merely for believing that apartheid was totally wrong and no human beings should be judged by their skin colour.

A cross section of the population may be optimistic looking into a crystal ball but there are tell-tale signs of impending trouble. They range from economic indicators to politics. In the third quarter of 2013, South Africa’s jobless rate decreased to 24.7 per cent, the lowest value in almost two years, according to trading economics website.

The number of people without work went down to 4.66 million, from 4.72 million in the previous three months. In addition, the African Development Bank warns that economic growth suffered in 2012 from social unrest and the euro crisis but was expected to accelerate moderately in 2013 and 2014 owing to better global demand and macroeconomic policies.

 The AFDB warns: “South Africa continues to face the triple challenge of chronic high unemployment, poverty and inequality amid a slow and volatile domestic and global economic environment. The National Development Plan needs to be implemented to address structural bottlenecks to job creation.”

  Despite a rich natural resource endowment, AFDB believes the country’s extractive industry continues to operate below potential due to the lack of technological progress and policy uncertainty. The African National Congress (ANC) has ruled out outright nationalisation.

Corruption has become endemic and worrying. There could be clarity when elections, due next year, allows voters to express their anger at the state of national affairs.

Then there is the little troublesome lot of Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by the youthful Julius Malema, the young militant who rubbed the ANC the wrong way. He wants nothing less full economic freedom, which include seizing back land and mines.

Freelance journalist Dioler Mangani sums it all: “ANC is still a strong party, but if it is not delivering for the people it may be hard for them to keep the support they have been getting. People are looking for results.”

Mangani says voters are looking to the government to empower black people to prosper. “The education and health systems are critical. But the government cannot just be giving hand outs to people, they will be killing them. They need to show people how to fish, people want to do things for themselves.”

Mangani says he is an optimist who believes in South Africa. “I have been to other countries. I love them but I love my country more. I will die in this country.”

The bigger question is whether the majority bought into Mandela’s dream of reconciliation and a prosperous future nourished by an egalitarian society. A visit to the townships can be depressing.

Alexandra, where Mandela first set up his first bachelor’s residence after moving from Transkei, is a teeming township of box shacks, leaking sewage and mounds of garbage.

Everything about this township is emblematic of broken promises and the growing divide between the white population and the new generation of black people impatient about economic prosperity.

Sandton, a rich suburb and business city on the outskirts of Johannesburg, is the epitome of lavish living. It is a place where Lamborginis rub shoulders on the superhighways with Mercedes and BMWs with, predictably,  a white driver behind the wheel.

Alexandra is the complete juxtaposition. A township where dreams end and poverty abounds everywhere. Resident Mongezi Xhoma, 20, whose great grandfather was Mandela’s landlord in Alexandra in 1941, says he is amazed at how South Africa has evolved in the last 20 years.

“The biggest change has been education and our own languages. Mandela changed the line of separation between whites and blacks.”

Mandela, Xhoma says, put the poor township on the global map.  “Many residents feel beyond this, Mandela lived here so what? It’s tough living here. The place is unplanned; a spark of order would do us a lot of good. We need (street) lights.”

Xhoma says Alexandra has running water and electricity, but many residents are too poor to even afford to pay their utility bills. It is the narrative of the majority of blacks still waiting for the promises of a new rainbow flag hoisted in 1994 amidst optimistic pledges of equal opportunity irrespective of colour.

It has been 19 years and the majority of young voters are getting rapidly impatient. Which in a sense explains the attraction that Julius Malema’s Red Beret’s Brigade offers.

Maroza Hogana, 40, is a proud supporter of the EFF and greatly admires Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe whom he describes in superlatives as the “best president on the continent.”

“Mandela is no more but he will forever remain in our hearts. But as the younger generation, we must take the liberation forward and take the land back from the oppressors and get the minerals. It’s pointless getting political freedom without economic freedom.”

Maroza describes Mugabe as pro-people, no matter what people may say or think about his strategy of getting back the land and minerals. “In any war, there are casualties.”

A Kenyan resident   who has lived in the country for close to a decade says the future for South Africa is bright. But she says local people need to value education.

“They have very beautiful universities which are free but very few blacks attend. If you count out 20 PhDs in one college, you will be lucky to get one black South African.”

Receptionist Nqobile Mngadi, 20, says Mandela built a very strong foundation for the country. “So whether he is there or not the country moves on.

When you build a home, if the father builds a very strong foundation and he passes on, it won’t matter if he is there or not. They will continue. There will be the few who may go astray but they will be pulled by the majority to order. “

Nqobile believes Malema and the Red Berets are not remotely a threat to the country’s stability. “Even those who follow Malema follow him blindly. Many of them sing loudly about EFF on the streets and then they go and vote for the ANC.”

Still, EFF has a big following among the 18 to 24 youth vote, a sizable voting block in the country. Nqobile is very optimistic about the future. The country will celebrate 20 years next April.  “When we compare where we are now and where we were two decades ago, ANC has done a lot. Most people do not appreciate. Go to the townships.”

Nqobile credits the free housing scheme in the townships that has seen many blacks own their houses for the first time to the ruling party. The Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) was an ANC programme to address the immense socio-economic problems brought about by the social inequality under the apartheid regime.

The project aims at building basic houses and replacing shacks by providing low-cost housing for the poor people, those not working or citizens who earn less than Sh20,000 per month.

The RDP’s novel objectives have been stifled by poor locals selling their free houses to foreigners at throw-away prices and returning to their shacks or the streets.

The challenges for the country are enormous. Still, the citizens can take credit that South Africa is a first world country in a third world continent. Almost everything works here. The superhighways, the modern airports, water and the lack of electricity outages.

If President Jacob Zuma’s booing at the Mandela funeral is anything to go by, expect the blossoming democracy to take more drastic steps come next year’s elections. And there is a vibrant opposition waiting in the wings to prove they can write the next great chapter — if given the opportunity by voters.