By LUKE ANAMI and DANIEL PSIRMOI

KENYA: Campaigns for the Bungoma senatorial by-election come to a close this week.

CORD candidate and immediate former Senator Moses Wetang’ula and Amani’s Musikari Kombo have not left anything to chance in the hunt for votes, a factor that has made it difficult to guess an outright winner.

Independent candidate and veteran journalist David Makali and Labour Party of Kenya’s Bifwoli Wakoli have also been on the ground soliciting for votes, a move that has seen loyalties shift in their favour.

The by-election slated for Thursday, however, viewed by many as a two-horse race between Kombo and Wetangula, and a do-or die battle for CORD’s Wetang’ula, who has described the coming polls and its outcome as ‘a defining moment for not only the county but the country as well’.

Kombo and Wetang’ula’s bitter rivalry has influenced a high number of voters compared to the other two candidates, Makali and Bifwoli.

The question lingering on everybody’s lips is whether the ruling made by Judge Francis Gikonyo when he nullified Wetang’ula’s March 4 election was the last nail driven in his political coffin, considering that the former Senator was viewed as the last standing senior Luhya politician.

Early this month he had even expressed interest in gunning for the presidency in 2017. However, as the campaigns come to an end on December 17, it is clearly emerging that whoever wins the propaganda war will carry the day.

Bungoma County, which witnessed violence and murder after the March 4th elections that saw more than 100 people killed, has not escaped the attention of the residents and candidates.

Dismisses others

The killings are perceived to have taken place in areas that voted overwhelmingly for Amani and the coalition’s candidate has capitalised on the matter in his campaign.

Speaking during his campaigns in Webuye, New Ford Kenya candidate, Kombo said he is the right candidate for the post as his leadership is the best to handle the cases of insecurity that saw his lawyer Peter Wanyonyi succumbed to gun shots from thugs.

“Bungoma has seen increase in cases of insecurity. Some of the murder cases are yet to be resolved. My party is based suited to tackle the situation as those who were elected to do so have failed,” he said in a thinly veiled attack aimed at Wetang’ula.

The former senator on his part has often insisted that insecurity is the prerogative of the National Government.

Speaking in Sirisia during his campaigns in the region Wetang’ula blamed the Government of President Uhuru Kenyatta for failing to provide security.

“This county has witnessed some of the highest cases of murder. Recently two watchmen were killed in Webuye, killings in Pokot and Turkana are also on the increase. We want to see the President take charge by personally visiting the affected areas and offering leadership,” he said.

Even as the two discussed the issue of insecurity in the county, a section of residents in the region have not forgotten the killings of innocent children and women in May and have blamed politicians for the attacks. It will be interesting to see how each plays the other as the culprit on insecurity with three days left to the polls.

Differed

Another factor that is likely to influence the voting pattern is the perceived loyalty to CORD and Amani leaders. The by election is a seen as a platform that will determine who between former prime minister Raila Odinga, CORD’s leader and Musalia Mudavadi, Amani’s presidential flag bearer in the last polls, is popular in Western region.

The Amani coalition has often fought off the tag that it was a Jubilee project a factor that has seen the two camps attack each other in public.

The first to throw the salvo was Raila who accused Mudavadi of being a Jubilee project.

“Amani has signed an agreement with Jubilee to work together. A vote for CORD is a vote for prosperity but a vote for Kombo is a vote for a Jubilee project,” Raila said when he escorted Wetang’ula to pick his certificate from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission last month.

But in a quick rejoinder, Mudavadi protested that the former Prime Minister has a habit of painting others as projects while he openly seeks support from the same Jubilee government that he condemns.

“While he advises his people to work with the government of the day, he in the same breath dismisses others who want to work with the Jubilee government. His is a case of double standards,” Mudavadi said.

Analysts aver that even if the immediate former senator makes it to the ballot paper, recapturing back his seat will not be a walk in the park as he has created many enemies in the region in the recent times his rise to the helm of the CORD coalition.

According to Charles Nandain, a political analyst, Wetang’ula is a strong factor in the western region  and may bounce back.

He notes that the immediate former senator has the backing of senior Luhya political leaders including Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale, former Kanduyi MP Alfred Khangati, Chris Wamalwa MP Kiminini amongst others.

However others have differed with him saying Kombo enjoys the support from NFK party leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Kwanza MP Noah Wekesa, former Webuye MP Joash Wamang’oli, and even perceived support from Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka.

Nandain, a lecturer at International Leadership University says the fact that the Jubilee government, (which has announced that it will back Kombo) has snubbed people of Bungoma County in plum job appointments, may just work in favour of Wetang’ula.

“Bungoma residents have been left in the cold as far as distributing the cake by the Jubilee government. The implication is that, the electorate will be hostile to whoever will be perceived as a Jubilee project. New Ford Kenya Party is friendly to Jubilee, this may prove to be detrimental to Kombo,” said the don, who added that the judgment that nullified the win of senator may be politically capitalised to portray that it is the court not the people who are determining the fate of the Bungoma people.