Hunger looms as maize harvest falls short

BY MARK KAPCHANGA

Crop troubles: Kenyans are up for tough times on the back of poor maize harvests, a research organisation has warned.  

The alert, yet again, casts a spotlight on the capacity of the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) to supply fertilisers to farmers on time.

The seeds of hunger, it would seem, were planted at the start of the season when NCPB delayed procurement and delivery of fertiliser. 

Since 2008, the government has been importing over 60,000 metric tonnes of planting and top-dressing fertilisers annually through NCPB. This has in turn been distributed and sold to farmers at a subsidised price.

The policy, which seeks to boost food security in Kenya through increased fertiliser use, has seen fertiliser priced at between 30 per cent and 41 per cent lower than that from commercial outlets.

Yet, five years since the rollout of the ambitious plan, millions of Kenyans are still at risk of starvation.

According to an assessment by the Tegemeo Institute of Egerton University that was released last week, maize crop performance this year is expected to fall below that of 2012.

From the long rains, the country will realise about 28.8 million bags, representing a deficit of 14 million bags from an earlier forecast by the ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries.

After short rains

After the short rains, Kenyans may reap an average 4.5 million bags.

This means the country will have a total output of approximately 33.3 million bags. This is 15 per cent below the national consumption of 40 million bags.

The food research think-tank’s valuation of maize stocks as at the end of January 2014 is 12 million bags.

Tegemeo Institute’s research shows that Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Narok and Nakuru will record surplus maize harvests, while Kakamega, Migori, Meru and Embu will have sufficient harvests.

However, Kisumu, Nyando, Bomet, Kitui, Mwingi and Makueni are likely to face food deficits.

“While the food security situation looks positive in the short term, there is need for close monitoring of the 2013/2014 maize crop performance and food stocks to guard against volatility in food prices or shortfalls in maize supply that could threaten the country’s food security in the medium term,” said Tegemeo Institute Director Mary Mathenge.

The recurrent food deficiencies, Mathenge argues, are a result of delays in farm operations due to heavy and irregular rains at the time of planting, late or lower fertiliser application rates, lack of subsidised fertilisers and high cost of farm inputs.

Now, critics are questioning the commitment and ability of the financially anaemic NCPB to supply the critical farm input.

In previous years, farmers say there have been severe shortcomings in the NCPB-supplied fertiliser plan.

They say the quantities supplied do not meet their demand. Secondly, the fertiliser does not reach them on time. For instance, in the 2013/2014 long rains season, the planting fertiliser DAP was delayed by up to four weeks.

In the same period, the top-dressing fertiliser CAN was also delayed. In some parts of the North Rift, farmers did not received them at all.

“The problem has been complicated by the subsidy which tends to favour regions where planting is done during the months of March and April. In addition, it is usually difficult for farmers to access these fertilisers since NCPB depots are usually far away from them,” said Tegemeo’s senior maize researcher Francis Karin.

Analysts say it is time the government stopped using NCPB in supplying fertilisers to farmers. Instead, the board should concentrate on its core function — procuring, storing and maintaining a strategic grain reserve on behalf of the government.

To avert these challenges, Karin says a masterplan must be developed that will ensure subsidised fertiliser reaches a larger number of farmers in different maize-growing areas on time.

There have also been cases of well-connected cartels buying the subsidised fertiliser, repackaging and selling it exorbitantly to farmers.

Indeed, there have been massive scandals involving the subsidised fertiliser, where unscrupulous businessmen divert them into Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda.

The subsidy

“The subsidy has never benefitted the intended smallholder farmers. This shows that the government should never be involved in the purchase or distribution of fertilisers,” said Bimal Kantaria, the managing director of Elgon Kenya, which distributes agro inputs.

Agriculture experts say farmers can actually access fertiliser at a reasonable fee without having government directly involved.

Kenya has in fact witnessed rapid investment in private fertiliser distribution networks, with over 15 importers, 600 wholesalers and 10,000 retailers now operating in the country.

This followed the elimination of retail price controls, import licensing quotas, foreign exchange controls, and the phase out of external fertiliser donation programmes that disrupted commercial operations in the early 1990s.

“Full liberalisation would now mean limiting government involvement in the fertiliser supply chain and letting the market forces and healthy competition prevail, which ultimately would benefit the farmer,” said Kantaria.

“What government needs to do is play a facilitative role and create incentives and a favourable environment for investors and private companies, especially local ones, to be actively involved in the supply chain.”

Food-sufficient nations

Malawi and Ghana, some of the food-sufficient nations in Africa, have shown how successful market liberalisation can be.

In Malawi, for instance, after the government invested in assisting local companies in fertiliser supply, food production shot up by a whopping 50 per cent within one season. The number of food insecure people went down from five million to three million within a year.

Even as the nation seeks the best strategy to make Kenya food secure, farmers say the government should not only focus on fertiliser but also other primary farm inputs such as seeds. They claim quality seeds are costly.

This has compelled them to use low-quality seeds, which have impacted negatively on production.

Just last week, agricultural stakeholders sounded the alarm over the sale of fake seeds to growers, a situation they warned that if not contained could compromise food security in the country.

Dr Evans Sikinyi, the head of the Seed Trade Association of Kenya (STAK), says up to 30 per cent of the seeds in the market are counterfeit.

“Farmers lose up to Sh1 billion per year to well-oiled acketeers and briefcase seed agents. The result: crop vulnerability and falling yields, which give way to perpetual food shortage,” Sikinyi said.

He added that briefcase seed agents currently control between 10 and 20 per cent of the total seed market.

According to Tegemeo Institute, the high costs of accessing fertiliser and quality seeds have seen farmers shy away from cultivating maize.

In Uasin Gishu County, a maize farmer earns an average of Sh12,229 in profits per acre while in Trans Nzoia, farmers earn Sh6,000 more.

The recent implementation of the Value Added Tax Act could further plunge the country’s food balance sheet into an abyss. According to the Tegemeo Institute survey, the punitive tax measure has rendered the agriculture sector non-competitive.

“The country risks long-run effects like poverty, nutrition and unemployment as well as infiltration of cheap imports. Moreover, farmers are likely to pass the extra cost to consumers resulting in high food prices,” said Kantaria.