If there is anyone out there who doubts that the UDA marriage is irretrievable then let them look for the video clips of the Deputy President at Wakulima market last Friday. Accusations and counter-accusations have been exchanged in the last couple of months and this takes me to the uncomfortable Kenyan conventional wisdom that when any two major ethnic groups combine, they they can tilt the national political competition into their favour. For avoidance of doubt, the three major tribes have been the Gema communities counted as one voting bloc, the Rift Valley communities sometimes mischievously referred to as Kamatusa by the political class to mean kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana and Samburu then there is Luo Nyanza.
When Luo Nyanza combined efforts with Mt Kenya in early '90s, the repressive section 2A cracked like a cookie. When they came together again in 2002, the Narc dream materialised. When Luo Nyanza and the Rift Valley came together in 2007, an incumbent was beaten so thoroughly that the electoral body had to ‘dance Ndombolo with the results’ of the presidential election to save his skin but at a huge cost to the country.
The 2010 referendum was primarily a result of ethnic elite settlement between central Kenya and Luo Nyanza with Ukambani being the icing on the cake. Politics are local and in spite of our desire for an egalitarian society, we must first appreciate the fact that the one we live in is imperfect and my ethnic extraction means something if I were to run for office.
This then brings me to the elephant in the room. With Kalonzo Musyoka and his Kamba constituency drifting towards the Gema elites, will the Luos dash headlong into the bosom of William Ruto? In a different time and place, I would have answered that question in the affirmative without a second thought. But in the age where internet penetration and high literacy levels have changed and demystified old political dogmas, we must pause for a second and critically analyse the emerging political trends.
An old Swahili adage says that when two brothers are fighting, as their neighbour, it is time to till your land and when they make peace its time to harvest your cobs. After the 2018 handshake, the Luo took it upon itself to defend Uhuru from both real and perceived enemies. The handshake then turned the community into a perfect political punching bag in central Kenya with Raila Odinga being the usual political boogeyman. We still recall with sadness how a recently sacked CS from Kiambu would tell people of Central that Jubilee had taken all development to Luo Nyanza because of a small interchange that could not be compared to Dongo Kundu one in Mombasa. But the CS in question only had a problem with Ahero Interchange. Folk wisdom tells us that the friend of your enemy is your enemy.
Will Luo Nyanza, at the cost of two Cabinet secretary positions, claim that “They are in government”?
The old folks who lived in the days when Charles Njonjo could insult an entire community and still strut the State Law Office like a god, might celebrate that “we have first this and the first that”. But we have learnt that the politics of first this and first that can sometimes be nonsense on stilts. Remember when the US celebrated the election of the first Black President. Did it lead to a post-racial America? Part of the answer lies in whom they elected as a successor.
I have a feeling that Nyanza will conduct herself like a woman of marriageable age. It will and must not close her ears to any suitor. It would be preposterous for Nyanza to swing like a pendulum from one end to another without posing to ask “what is in it for her”. What programmatic agenda is this or that side proposing? The same old patronage will not work with the young people.
As the battle rages between the two erstwhile political lovebirds, we the young people must invent the new tools with which to respond to the challenges of this present moment and discard the tools of yesterday.
Mr Mwaga is the convener of Inter-parties Youth Forum. kidimwaga@gmail.com
