President William Ruto has gone for the old-style book his predecessors used to survive political storms by nominating opposition figures into government. However, now that he is dealing with a different generation, he may need a different approach to steady the country in the wake of protests being led by young people.
Like presidents Daniel arap Moi and Mwai Kibaki, Ruto is co-opting opportunistic opposition figures into the government, by offering them senior positions, to win their allegiance.
Analysts are however questioning the effectiveness of this strategy in this digital era where a majority of the population, especially the youth who are uncomfortable with his governance, are no longer ignorant and gullible.
Former Law Society of Kenya president Eric Theuri argues that the next year will decide the direction President Ruto’s administration and the country will take because the political landscape has completely changed.
Young activists
“I see a lot of political realignments with younger politicians probably coming together and joining these young activists, which will change the political order because they are a generation that can appeal to the largest voter segment in this country,” says Theuri.
He cites the change that has taken place in Britain and France as examples of how young people are taking over the legislative and political spaces. He feels the same thing is unfolding in Kenya.
President Ruto appears to have managed to calm the waters as was seen this week when he stormed Meru and Mombasa with a series of impromptu rallies. However, the youth, who started the clamour for accountability in government, are also re-strategizing.
One young protester, Shakira Wafula, a prominent face in the street protests, is among those who think President Ruto will not succeed in using the old tactics of working with the opposition in his attempt to stop them from fighting bad governance and corruption in the Kenya Kwanza administration.
“Our parents have failed us because they keep re-electing people who use politics and their positions for their interests. But as young people, we will not give anybody who fails Kenyans more time in office,” says Shakira.
She is also not surprised that “ODM took advantage of the protests” to jump into government, urging young Kenyans to continue with the fight. “It is now the young people against the political class,” says Shakira.
Change strategy
Shakira also argues that the youth have to change their strategy because the protests are becoming less impactful. She regretted that they were now losing more than they were gaining. She feels they need a step back to re-strategise.
The social media has also erupted with anger being spread on X, Tik Tok and Instagram by Kenyans, both at home and abroad, especially after some ODM honchos were nominated for Cabinet slots. Former Mombasa governor Hassan Joho and his Kakamega counterpart Wycliffe Oparanya. The two are ODM’s deputy party leaders. Others are Nominated MP John Mbadi and Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi.
Government bloggers are trying hard to counter the outrage on social media but they have been overwhelmed by millions of keyboard warriors who have been key in organising the paralysing street protests that have rocked the country for the past month.
Bringing Raila’s allies into government may have cooled down the political heat. However, Ruto may be missing an opportunity to deal with the real problems ravaging the country, which have also been enumerated by the Gen Z protesters.
Former Nairobi Town Clerk Philip Kisia argues that taking opposition leaders into government will not cure the problems in President Ruto’s government. He says a total overhaul of the governance structures is needed.
From his assessment, Ruto has not succeeded in quelling the unrest among Kenyans as not all of them agree with the direction he is taking.
“We have 70 per cent of the population that comprises millennials, Gen Z and alphas and yet only a small fraction of Kenyans support his idea of a broad-based government. Over 90 per cent of the people disagree with him,” says Kisia.
He thinks President Ruto has only satisfied a minority by nominating the four, leaving out the majority who feel he is not dealing with the issues they have raised such as ethnicity, corruption, the high cost of living, lack of jobs, extrajudicial killings, abductions and police brutality.
Kisia says before making any appointments, the president should have sent a sincere apology to the over 60 families whose loved ones died in the recent protests.
“That should include having a personal engagement with those families, to condole with them, and thereafter, assure Kenyans that it will never happen again,” said Kisia who added that by doing that, the president would win back the trust of Kenyans.
“After that, he would make appointments to address some of the issues raised such as lack of inclusivity, and ethnic and gender imbalance, as he builds towards reconciliation. However, in my view, he missed his way because these are issues he should have been dealt with three weeks ago,” says Kisia.
He also foresees a situation where the opposition will receive a backlash for joining a government that the majority of Kenyans want out of office as soon as yesterday.
Many see the current political arrangement between Ruto and ODM as selfish, only aimed at benefitting a few in the political class at the expense of ordinary people. Mbadi who is poised to take over at the National Treasury, is on record calling members of former Cabinet incompetent skunks during a past session in parliament. Yet, he is now going to work with more than half of the former CSs who have received a recall.
Joho, the Mining and Blue Economy nominee, in 2022, swore never to work with President Ruto, that he could never push a wheelbarrow. However, the former governor has accepted Ruto’s offer and only the vetting panel of MPs stands between him and his new office.
Oparanya’s sincerity also comes into question. He had vowed he would rather end his political career and go home to become a farmer than work with Ruto. He has not told Kenyans what has changed, about him or Ruto.
Some argue President Ruto will weather the storm with time because the angry youth will calm down and forget about everything ahead of 2027.
“They are mistaken because this young population is knowledgeable. They will not forget that they are jobless and that they lost friends and loved ones. And their stomachs will continue reminding their brains that it is empty,” says Kisia.
Carried burden
Politician and analyst Rachel Omolo also thinks a backlash against Ruto and ODM is possible, just as it happened after the Kenyatta-Raila handshake in 2018.
“You saw what happened when Baba shook hands with Uhuru. It was used against him and cost him the 2022 presidential election. He carried that administration’s burden and made them unpopular,” says Omolo.
Theuri says it is highly unlikely that UDA will remain intact, foreseeing changes in leadership because of the prevailing political circumstances created by the Gen Z protests. The lawyer says Ruto will no doubt create some stability in his government by bringing in people with strong political bases. But those nominated are also risking their political careers which will be largely decided by young voters whose wishes they are going against.
“Some people are asking how relevant joining government will be for their political future. We have heard some politicians refused to take up these positions because of those fears,” says Theuri.
Ruto is taking a gamble both for his survival now and possible realignment for his 2027 re-election bid by creating room for more coalition partners.
Sources in ODM say apart from four nominated to CS positions, more than 15 PS and parastatal heads positions will also be given to the party in the deal agreed on between Ruto and Raila.
Raila’s bromance with Ruto has also shaken Azimio la Umoja coalition, with some of its leaders saying Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka will now take over the captain’s role, from the ODM chief.
