Leaders scramble for Coast voters

The heightened political activity at the Coast in the last two months is the clearest signal that the journey towards the 2022 General Election has begun in earnest.

This month alone has seen ODM leader Raila Odinga, Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy President William Ruto's allies reaching out to leaders and residents in the region.

Kanu unveiled its Mombasa team in August while Wiper opened offices in Mombasa and Taita Taveta counties in a free-for-all aimed at wresting ODM's much-touted dominance over the past 10 years.

Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Lamu counties boasted 1.7 million registered voters before the 2017 General Election. Now the other parties want a slice of the votes.

While Raila has firm allies in governors Hassan Joho (Mombasa) and Amason Kingi (Kilifi), the other suitors are seeking to establish binding political relationships.

It is claimed that Ruto's forays into the region have two aims. First, to gain a share of votes in case his grip on central Kenya weakens and, secondly, to encourage the formation of a local political party thus fragmenting votes and weakening Raila's hold on the region.

Analysts say the December 15 Msambweni by-election will be the perfect opportunity for parties to gauge whether their tactics are working or if they need to go back to the drawing board.

Ruto’s team includes Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa, Lunga Lunga’s Khatib Mwashetani and former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar.

Raila returned to the Coast days after Ruto’s visit and toured Taita Taveta, Mombasa and Kwale counties with Joho in tow as he campaigned for the Building Bridges Initiative. Wiper member and Taita Taveta Governor Granton Samboja is his latest foot soldier.

Kalonzo was in the region on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday where he said the journey to the 2022 polls had started.

Second fiddle

"This time round I will not be playing second fiddle to anyone. The 10 years I spent assisting Raila win the presidential election are enough. It will not be business as usual,” he declared.

He also unveiled the Wiper candidate for Msambweni, Shee Mahmoud Abdulrahman.

Kanu's revival in Mombasa was sparked by the unveiling in August of a ten-member technical team headed by former Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry Mombasa Chapter chairperson Rukia Rashia.

The team is expected to open new offices, help recruit members and re-establish the Independence party's foothold in the region.

"Mombasa was a Kanu zone and we are ready to revive and restore its fame and glory,” said Ms Rukia.

Kanu chairman Gideon Moi has been on a mission to forge new alliances and spread the party's tentacles in Mombasa, igniting speculation of a possible political pact ahead of the 2022 polls.

Gideon had earlier met Joho and the leaders agreed to work together in the spirit of the BBI.

Former Kisauni MP Ananiah Mwaboza argues that there has been a political paradigm shift since Coast politicians led by Kilifi North MP Owen Baya announced the formation of Vuguvugu La Mageuzi Pwani to allegedly agitate for the allocation of resources and fight for the rights of residents.

"The fact that Coast people want to establish their own identity and political vehicle so as to partner with others at the national level instead of just individual realignments has caused concern to political parties. It is why top party officials have been rushing to the Coast. The political ground has shifted a lot here,” Mr Mwaboza said.

According to him, Msambaweni MP Khatib Mwashetani spelled out the facts during a recent meeting with Ruto.

"Having a political party for the Coast is a rallying call for us. If we don't field a presidential candidate then we will partner with others at the national level. Our group on change is planning a kamkunji for Msambweni where we will announce the candidate we will be supporting," said Mwaboza.

Mr Baya was suspended by ODM after he presented Feisal Bader as an independent candidate for the Msambweni by-election to Ruto.

Baya drifted from the ODM fold during the acrimonious debate on the county revenue sharing formula. He argued that the Coast ought to get its rightful share because it is among the marginalised regions in the country.

Former Lamu County Council chairman Abdalla Fadhil said political parties were scrambling for the region's swing vote, adding that political alignments appeared to have shifted since the 2017 election.

"Coast has always served as a swing vote and it is not hostile to political parties. There is growing fear the region could be tilting towards the new movement headed by Mr Baya. The movement cannot be taken lightly because it can tilt the huge Mijikenda vote bloc because of the grievances it has raised around marginalisation,” Mr Fadhil said.

He said ODM has mainly depended on Joho to advance its interests at the Coast, but the Baya-led team has a new crop of politicians, including Jumwa and Mwashetani, who are determined to turn the tables.

Jumwa has said she will demand the implementation of the Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission report because it would be of the greatest benefit to residents as opposed to the BBI report.

University don Hassan Mwakimako said the Msambweni by-election was the main attraction for leaders.

He also argued that the Baya group and political parties that originate from the Coast have no time to effectively participate in the mini-poll hence the battle will be between ODM and the Jubilee formation allied to Ruto.

Umoja Summit Party of Kenya chairman Matano Chengo said Vuguvugu La Mageuzi Pwani was working for influential politicians in the country and may not sustain its agitation for the Coast region.

"We fear these Coast MPs are swayed with money by those wealthy politicians. If that is not the case, then why should they present a candidate to Ruto?” Mr Chengo posed.