Empires tend to rise and fall, sometimes in dramatic ways. While some last for centuries and develop beliefs of infallibility, others barely last a century. In the 21st Century, three men leading three empires are struggling to escape the fate of previous empires. These are Donald Trump in the United States, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Each is assertive and embroiled in prolonged wars because their identified ‘enemy’ refuses to surrender. Having put the world on geopolitical tenterhooks, each leads an internally shaky country despite giving the impression that it is stable.
The US dominated the 20th Century in every conceivable way, including claims to moral superiority. It developed strong economic might, unmatched technology, performed wonders in outer space, and has Artificial Intelligence (AI) threatening to go rogue. It replaced and turned European imperial powers into what Zbigniew Brzenzinski reportedly considered its vassals. Throwing its weight around, it ignored international law, bullied others to obey its whims, and it did not always succeed. Losing credibility and facing stiff resistance, it deluded itself that it still had the power to force other countries to do its bindings.
That delusion became clear when Trump set out to reorganise the American polity and the world by destroying post-World War institutions that represented the American face to the world. He disrupted education and other US ‘soft power’ tools. Globally, he unilaterally imposed tariffs on other countries and tried to change geography. Some countries, like Canada, resisted and imposed their own counter-tariffs and rejected his territorial claims.
He launched a war on Iran, expecting quick victory but with the Iranians frustrating his expectations, he turned to accusing US Western allies of ingratitude for not supporting his war. Iran’s ability to neutralise the US into desperate grumblings raised Iran’s geopolitical profile. The frustration also meant that the US was no longer the mighty colossus that it had been. This reality enabled American geopolitical ‘vassals’ in Europe to rebel and go separate ways.
The one man who joined and encouraged Trump to attack Iran was Israel’s Netanyahu, who is leading a similarly declining imperial power of the Middle East. Created out of the old Ottoman Empire, Israel owes its existence to the sense of guilt that big powers developed over their atrocities against Jews before and during World War II. The new post-World War II United Nations, with US and Soviet support, split Palestine into Arab and Jewish zones.
The Jews proclaimed the State of Israel in May 1948 and expelled the Arabs. It exploited major powers’ religious claim to Christianity and identification with Israeli claims to ‘Biblical lands’ and acquired big geopolitical leverage over other countries. Having leverage that cowed globally influential people into defending the indefensible, it became an imperialist aggressor and committed atrocities which made it lose credibility and moral high ground within and outside Israel. Even Christians had problems accepting that Biblical authority justified atrocities against Palestinians. Since the Palestinians have not surrendered, Israel has not won and is on the losing side.
The third empire on decline is Russia which launched a war in Ukraine that it has not won after four years. This made the Ukrainians, like the Iranians and Palestinians, look heroic because they were underdogs. The reasons for Putin’s war paled when compared to Russia's inability to make Ukraine to surrender. This inability raises doubts as to its ability to reassert its past glory that ended with the collapsed Soviet Union. This inability hurts Russia’s great power image and its Eurasian dream. Watchful European Union countries, arming and funding Ukraine, despite Trump’s scepticism, feel strong enough to develop a sense of Euro independence from being American vassals.
The impression is that imperialistic US, Israel and Russia are declining because, despite their overwhelming bombing prowess, they cannot defeat determined little countries seemingly defending themselves. This gives ideas that other small entities can also resist.
