Why Uhuru is stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea

By now, it is clear that there is no love lost between former President Uhuru Kenyatta and his successor, Dr William Ruto.

It is also proving difficult to convince Mr Kenyatta to start trusting Rigathi Gachagua, the man who so openly and repeatedly stabbed him in the back just a few years ago.

Still, the opposite of love is not hate, and the opposite of hate is not love. Life has a way of teaching us this difficult lesson by turning people who intensely love each other today into bitter enemies tomorrow and forcing people who intensely hate each other today into inseparable sweethearts tomorrow.

It is only when we are forced to choose whom to love between two people, we hate that we often find ourselves caught between the devil and the deep blue sea—a position that Uhuru now finds himself in ahead of the 2027 presidential elections.

It is a tricky position for the former president to be in. If he chooses either Ruto or Mr Gachagua, he will lose. If he chooses neither, his influence will quickly fade away, and he and the entire Kenyatta family could become irrelevant in Kenyan politics.

So far, Uhuru has no reason to trust either man.

Indeed, Gachagua has not shown enough remorse over the personal attacks directed at Uhuru and the Kenyatta family during the 2022 presidential campaigns and the short period he served as deputy president.

In the culture of the Mount Kenya region, a man who heaps insults on your family must do more than offer a casual apology. Such insults require an elaborate cleansing ceremony that Gachagua has not conducted to date.

As for Uhuru and Ruto, perhaps these two never liked each other in the first place; true that theirs was, in many ways, an arranged marriage that broke down irretrievably as soon as the President appeared to condone personal attacks against the Kenyatta family.

Some observers might argue that Ruto may not have been entirely comfortable with the personal onslaught against the Kenyatta family that Gachagua enthusiastically spearheaded. They could also argue that the only reason Gachagua so fervently attacked the Kenyatta family and Uhuru himself was that he knew the Uhuru-Ruto relationship had to be broken irreparably before anyone could take over as Mount Kenya's kingpin.

Be that as it may, Uhuru now has to choose whom to support between two men who have, in both word and action, demonstrated that they are keen on ending, once and for all, the enormous influence that the Kenyatta family has wielded in Kenyan politics since independence.

One thing is clear: If Uhuru backs Gachagua, the era of the Kenyatta family could officially come to an end as soon as the former deputy president takes power. If Uhuru chooses Ruto, he risks losing the Mount Kenya region again as he did in 2017—this time for good.

If he chooses to sit on the fence, or if he supports someone else who fails to clinch power in the next poll, then Uhuru and the Kenyatta family could cease being relevant in Kenya's politics.

Perhaps Uhuru should consider backing Ruto because as things stand right now, the former president has already lost the mountain to Gachagua. As things stand now, Gachagua no longer needs Uhuru to gain control of the mountain, and once firmly established, the impeached deputy president has shown in the past that he shall not entertain any other king of the mountain except himself.

In the end, Uhuru’s choice between Ruto and Gachagua shall be made easier by the fact that Gachagua has already vanquished him in the battle for the mountain and no longer needs him as much as Ruto does. As such, between the devil and the sea, he might as well choose the sea and have a swimming chance for political survival.  

Choosing Ruto, on the other hand, gives Uhuru the chance that his successor might survive the next presidential election and, hopefully, cast the former president another lifeline in Mount Kenya and indeed, in Kenya’s politics.

Mr Muchiri is a media and public communications consultant. muchiri.karanja@gmail.com