Depending on whom you ask, the future of the Internet is one of three things. It is either a dystopia ruled by corporate giants, a utopia where artificial intelligence has solved the majority of humanity’s challenges, or a mix of the two.
As it is today, computing and networking technologies are evolving at a pace that has left Internet users trapped in a near-infinite cycle of adoption.
And this is expected to accelerate in the future.
According to Göran Marby, the head of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), while it is impossible to predict the future of the Internet, sub-Saharan Africa will play a large part in bringing it all together.
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“The fascinating thing about the Internet – which also makes me somewhat nervous – is that you never know what is coming next,” he said in an exclusive interview with Business Beat during his first visit to Kenya.
Grossly misunderstood
Indeed, in a best-selling book 10 years ago, renowned computer scientist Ray Kurzweil noted that human beings have grossly misunderstood the pace of technological advancement owing to a relatively short-sighted perception of the past and present.
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress,” he wrote.
The result, as described by Mr Kurzweil, sounds like something of a science fiction film – machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence in the next few decades.
This will lead to ‘The Singularity’ – technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
“The implications include the merger of biological and non-biological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light,” he wrote.
In the decade since Kurzweil published his mind-boggling book, advancements in mobile, wearable devices, autonomous cars and home appliances have progressed exponentially.
Technology researchers believe that after the first three digital revolutions – broadband, mobile connectivity and social networking – the Internet of Things comes fourth, significantly changing the way human beings interact with themselves and their devices.
Mr Marby, 53, has worked in the telecommunications sector for more than two decades, and was the director general at Sweden’s regulatory body, Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS), prior to his appointment at ICANN last March.
He is confident that the future of the Internet relies largely on how communities innovate and apply the resource’s functionalities.
“No one has been on the Internet for a long time, and the Internet today is not what it used to be five or so years ago and will not be the same in the next five years,” he said.
“Getting people online changes everything and levels the playing field. There could be someone in a garage in Nairobi right now who will be the one to reveal the next big solution.”
Equal opportunities
This is possible because of net neutrality – the Internet-governing principle that allows equal access to anybody, anywhere. This means, for example, that if two people from opposite ends of the earth log onto the same webpage, the flow of data packets from their two devices is treated equally.
This is important because it allows equal opportunities to software and hardware developers from all over the world to innovate.
It is, therefore, crucial for sub-Saharan African governments and ICT regulators to participate in global discussions on issues like net neutrality and digital security for the benefit of the more than one billion potential users in the region.
“Africa’s engagement will help to form the new Internet,” said Marby.
“Participating in the developing of the Internet through the different forums will allow the region to ensure that it also caters to specific regional needs.”
In the recent past, however, this has also seen governments and regulators in sub-Saharan Africa resort to heavy-handed techniques in a bid to control Internet access, fearing its use to fan discontent among netizens.
Mass Internet shutdowns have become more frequent, with the governments of Gambia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda and most recently Cameroon conducting large-scale shutdowns in the last year.
However, a study by the Brookings Institute found that 81 short-term Internet shutdowns in 19 countries in 2015 cost them $2.4 billion (Sh249.4 billion).
Some of the countries that suffered huge losses include India, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Iraq, with the losses expected to be higher since tax losses and loss of investment had been excluded.
Marby added that while the Internet is a global resource, the business application of it is still local in nature, which will require governments to develop legislation that is specific to the needs of local stakeholders.
“Many of these discussions are local, as it should be because it is the government and regulators that set the laws within a specific jurisdiction,” he said.
“The Internet is global, but the localisation of data is essential in bringing about an investment opportunity. Think local grocery stores, local municipalities, local news.”
Marby noted that another advantage working for the region is the adoption of mobile, where sub-Saharan Africa leads other regions in the world, providing a large pool of users to drive uptake.
“The Internet is like love. If you share information, you increase the value of information, just like it is with love.”
