Raila's rough political journey

By John Oywa

On a chilly morning in March 2002, a group of top Kanu operatives sat in a private hotel room in Kericho, seeping beverages and discussing a weighty issue – the Moi Succession.

Weeks after the secret meeting, Kenya’s political landscape slid into a crisis.

An alliance between Kanu and the Raila Odinga led National Development Party started crumbling after Raila learnt the merger which he had hoped would ease his march to State House was indeed a trick by Kanu to stop his quest for president.

An angry Raila who had been appointed Minister for Energy and Kanu Secretary General would later quit in a huff after President Moi publicly declared that Gatundu MP, Uhuru Kenyatta, was his preferred successor.

His political enemies celebrated. To them, the son of the country’s first Vice-President, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga had eaten humble pie.

Raila amekwisha, they told public rallies.

Fast forward to the present.

Raila’s political enemies are thumping their chests, arguing the Prime Minister has finally been caged and all his political escape routes blocked, thanks to a revolt by his party MPs from the vote-rich Rift Valley and a tense relationship with his coalition partner – President Kibaki.

President Kibaki’s Party of National Unity is even planning to withdraw from the coalition, to push Raila out of the Premiership and send the country into a snap election.

"Raila is now boxed into a political corner. He is trapped," Kangundo MP Johnston Muthama told reporters last week. The PNU spokesman Moses Kuria summed it up: "The guy is currently down and there can never be a better opportunity."

Plot against PM

Kuria spoke only days after MPs from the Rift Valley said they were seeking help from PNU to oust Raila as the Prime Minister and replace him with Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

The plot against Raila seems to be thickening. Groups of politicians have branded him the "common enemy".

But has the Lang’ata MP been punctured as his opponents claim? Will the current storm building around him bring down the political empire he has painstakingly built over the years?

A peep into Raila’s past and a chat with political analysts paints a picture of a battle-hardened man who has often turned crises into opportunities.

"Throw Raila into a crisis and it will be like throwing fish into water," a political analyst recently told a television talk show.

To his supporters, Raila is a noble warrior, a shrewd strategist, and a focused reformist. But his opponents portray him as a rabble-rouser who would stop at nothing to get power. They hate him with passion and would grab any opportunity to frustrate him.

Political scientist, Adams Oloo says leaders celebrating Raila’s alleged political downfall were victims of wishful thinking.

"Raila has had worse political crisis before but came out unscathed because he calculates well and is always on the side of the people," says Dr Oloo.

He adds: "Raila may not be on the same page with the President or some of the MPs, majority of whom will not make it back to Parliament, but he is on the same page with the people. He is always fighting on the side of the masses. This is why opinion polls put him ahead of the rest."

He cites the current controversy over the nominations of the Chief Justice and other top judicial officers, saying whereas the Judicial Service Commissions and all other institutions support Raila’s opposition to the nominations, his opponents were lone rangers.

Oloo says Rift Valley MPs cannot force Raila out of the premiership unless they resigned and sought fresh a mandate from the voters.

Analysts say Raila often uses the many political challenges facing him to re-invent himself.

From his wars with the late Kijana Wamalwa over leadership of Ford-Kenya, the abortive NDP-Kanu merger in 2002, the falling out with President Kibaki in 2005, the chaotic 2007 presidential elections and the current coalition woes, Raila has known nothing but controversy.

Oloo says the fact that Raila’s opponents were always hatching plots against him was proof he was still the man to beat in 2012.

Execute policies

"They say Raila is the common enemy. You can only gang up against a person you cannot beat. None of Raila’s opponents can face him on their own," says Oloo.

He adds: They claim Raila has been boxed into a corner. But why panic and form tribal alliances and spend huge finances to fight a cornered and subdued politician?"

Raila recently laughed off the onslaught against him, linking it to cries of a frog that will never stop a cow from drinking water.

Politician allied to PNU, however, insist Raila remains their biggest headache.

PNU vice-chairman George Nyamweya was recently quoted as saying: "He (Raila) disrespects our leader and has made it hard for the President to execute his policies."