As Donald Trump prepares to resume office as the 47th President of the United States of America, his rebound for second term offers a critical opportunity to recalibrate America's foreign policy, particularly regarding its relationship with China. Indeed, this relationship is pivotal. Together, the U.S. and China account for approximately 40 percent of global GDP, and 23 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, making their cooperation crucial for both economic stability and environmental sustainability.
Trump’s leadership could serve as a turning point, shaping not only his legacy but also the direction of global peace and prosperity. However, his approach must blend the strengths of his first term with strategic refinements to avoid previous missteps that strained both economic and diplomatic ties.
For many Americans, Trump’s initial presidency left an impression of economic strength, especially with the 2018 GDP growth of 2.9 percent and record-low unemployment rates at 3.5 percent pre-pandemic. However, his “America First” stance and tough tariff policies led to market volatility, affecting U.S. consumers and industries.
The 2018-2019 trade war with China, which included tariffs on USD 360 billion worth of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs from China, disrupted international markets, increasing costs for American businesses reliant on Chinese imports by up to 20 percent in some sectors. In his second term, Trump could avoid these economic pitfalls by favoring negotiated agreements over blanket tariffs, which would protect American businesses and consumers from unintended costs.
Trump’s approach to China must also address concerns over intellectual property (IP) theft, which cost the U.S. economy an estimated USD 225 to USD 600 billion annually, according to the IP Commission. His first term took initial steps to curb these issues through the 2020 Phase One trade agreement with China, which required China to increase intellectual property protections.
Yet, experts noted that enforcement mechanisms were limited, and progress has been incremental. A revised agreement with stronger enforcement provisions could build on these gains, fostering an environment where U.S. companies can compete more fairly in the Chinese market without compromising intellectual property.
Another critical area for Trump’s focus is multilateral diplomacy. His initial tendency toward unilateralism often sidelined allies, leading to diminished U.S. influence in global decision-making bodies. In 2018, for instance, Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement including several Pacific nations, left China to fill the gap with its own regional agreements, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. To counter China’s rising influence in global trade networks, Trump’s administration could re-engage with Pacific and European allies, leveraging partnerships to present a united front on trade practices and standards.
While the outgoing Joe Biden’s administration faced criticism for inconsistencies, especially with respect to tariffs, it also made headway in areas like climate change. The U.S. and China, under Biden, reopened limited channels of communication on environmental issues. A collaborative approach to climate action between these two powers could yield substantial progress on global climate goals.
In fact, projections indicate that if China and the U.S. were to jointly implement aggressive emissions reductions, the global temperature increase by 2100 could be mitigated by as much as 0.2 degrees Celsius. Trump’s second term should strengthen these ties by focusing on shared interests, such as renewable energy innovation, which has a projected ma…
