Mt Kenya and Nyanza regions have long been solid voting blocs led by influential political figures.
However, the fall of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and the exit of ODM chief Raila Odinga from local politics signal a shaky moment for these politically major areas.
The regions now find themselves in uncharted territory as they navigate the 2027 arithmetic without clear so-called kingpins or spokespersons.
Now, Mt Kenya’s 5.7 million voters and Nyanza’s 2.5 million, it appears, have been left to their own devices.
The reality is stark. In Nyanza, no one so far has the stature or acumen to fill Mr Odinga’s shoes. Meanwhile, Mr Gachagua’s impeachment on Thursday night leaves his political future uncertain, along with that of his region’s future political endeavours.
Once viewed as the topmost political figure in Mt Kenya after Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency, Mr Gachagua was never shy to advocate what he believed were his people’s interests. He never wanted anyone to touch the mountain. Also, he felt his region had more ‘shares’ in government.
Although the embattled leader recently claimed that Mr Kenyatta remains the undisputed ‘king’ of the mountain, it does not change the situation, as the former president no longer finds value in leading a community or a region in retirement. This makes Mt Kenya headship more precarious.
With Mr Gachagua and Mr Odinga officially out of the 2027 picture, it’s a bad coincidence for their regions. It will be intriguing to watch how these voting blocs navigate their new political direction. In the shifting scene, President William Ruto will smile all the way to a second term.
The situation in Nyanza will be particularly interesting. For decades, Mr Odinga’s word was law in the region, and his devoted following extended to parts of the Luhya community. However, his exit to pursue a seat at the Africa Union is already diminishing his influence at home.
The former prime minister’s exit leaves a number of ‘orphans’ but is an opportunity for his ODM party to move beyond two decades of nomination controversies that resulted in election of leaders lacking genuine grassroots support.
In 2022, many ODM strongholds elected independent candidates rather than back Mr Odinga. However, finding a successor to Mr Odinga is no simple task. Mr Dalmas Otieno, Dr Evans Kidero, Mr Okoth Obado and Mrs Gladys Wanga lack the charisma to galvanise the region.
At one point, Mr Otieno attempted to challenge the status quo in Nyanza by forming a party called Kalausi (Cyclone), hoping to turn tables on the Orange party.
Unfortunately, due to Mr Odinga’s influence, the new party died on arrival. Mr Odinga’s father, Jaramogi Odinga, was Nyanza’s kingpin for decades.
In Mt Kenya, potential kingpins such as Mr Moses Kuria, Mr Mutahi Kahiga, Mrs Ann Waiguru, Mr Kimani Ichung’wah, Mr Irungu Kang’ata and Mr Ndindi Nyoro will still face challenges in establishing their leadership in the region. Prof Kithure Kindiki, the incoming DP, will require time to gain total support among ‘mlima’ voters. Mt Kenya’s past kingpins included Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, Mwai Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba.
As these two vote-rich regions experience significant changes, the prospect of becoming ‘strange bedfellows,’ a term adapted from Shakespeare’s The Tempest, looms large. While the absence of a dominant leader may seem daunting, it also offers a silver lining in the sense that voters will no longer be compelled to recycle politicians.
Take it or leave it, the political landscape of Mt Kenya and Nyanza is poised for rapid evolution. Although uncertainty prevails, the potential for fresh and progressive leadership could invigorate these regions as they approach the 2027 elections.
It would be politically timely for younger leaders from the two regions to seize this opportunity to unapologetically establish themselves.
Mr Nyoro and Mr Babu Owino of Embakasi East are among those seen as having significant potential. Let them step up and prove themselves.
The writer is a communications practitioner. X:@markoloo
