The defection of former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto from the National Super Alliance (NASA) to Jubilee Party has thrown into disarray plans by the Opposition to chip away a portion of the Rift Valley votes from the ruling party ahead of the October 17 repeat presidential election.
NASA must now go back to the drawing board to strategise on how to convince voters in the Jubilee stronghold to vote for its presidential candidate, Raila Odinga.
In the run-up to the August 8 polls, Ruto led his Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM) party to NASA, where he was made the fifth principal in an attempt to woo a section of Rift Valley voters.
His political move came with an ambitious promise to Raila, and other Nasa co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi, that he would be able to marshal at least 1.5 million voters to back Raila’s bid.
But after the presidential election – whose results were eventually nullified by the Supreme Court – Ruto did not only fail to live up to his promise, but also lost his governor seat to Jubilee candidate Joyce Laboso.
Governor Laboso now says NASA failed to make any impact in Rift Valley even after her predecessor joined them.
“Rift Valley is a Jubilee zone. The people here are contented with what the Jubilee government has done for them for the past four and a half years. They are also confident that Uhuru and Ruto will deliver on each promise they made,” she says.
Uhuru polled 2,507,623 votes against Raila’s 749,276 in Rift Valley on August 8. In Bomet, Jubilee got 229,581 while NASA registered 32,002 votes.
Poor performance
Despite the poor performance, Ruto’s defection must have caught Raila and other Nasa co-principals unawares.
“If NASA doesn’t move fast and identify somebody else to lead its campaigns, the few supporters it had will scatter or be swayed by Jubilee Party juggernaut,” says Patu Naikumi, a political science lecturer at Maasai Mara University. Despite its dismal performance in the August 8 contest in Rift Valley, NASA had a big showing in Turkana and West Pokot counties. In fact, Raila beat Uhuru with 71,326 votes in Turkana, where Jubilee got 59,239. In West Pokot, NASA bagged 51,930 votes against Jubilee’s 97,667.
Some of the Opposition leaders expected to rally votes from the region include Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok and Uasin Gishu Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) chairman Francis Menjo in the North Rift and nominated MP Wilson Sossion in South Rift.
Mr Sossion says Ruto’s departure will not affect the Opposition’s performance in the region, adding that he will fill the void.
“He hasn’t shaken NASA. His decision to leave was informed by the short-term politics of the stomach, which thrived before promulgation of the new Constitution,” says the Secretary General of the Kenya National Union of Teachers (KNUT).
Narok Senator Ledama Ole Kina says former Kajiado Governor David Nkedianye, Kajiado Central MP Memusi Kanchori, his Narok North counterpart Moitalel Kenta, among other Maasai leaders will burn the mid night oil to deliver votes for NASA.
“Unlike before, we will guard votes, launch village-to-village campaigns and mobilise resources, among other measures, to ensure Jubilee doesn’t get anything,” says Kina.
