By Frankline Sunday

As Kenyans await the 2013/2014 budget to be read tomorrow, many will recognise the parallels with the 2003 budget read by then Minister for Finance David Mwiraria.

At the time, Kenya had just come from a landmark election where the incumbent, President Daniel Moi handed over power to Mwai Kibaki, bringing to an end his 24 years at the helm.

The ruling party, the Kenya African National Union (KANU), found itself for the first time since its inception, in the opposition after being trounced by the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC), an outfit made up of former Kanu stalwarts.

Kenya was ranked as the most optimistic country in the world as citizens believed for the first time, they had a real chance of getting their voice heard and their welfare genuinely looked at properly.

The new political class had already laid ground for the euphoric mood of the citizenry by offering campaign promises using generic and politically correct manifestos.

After the election, the Narc leadership hit the ground running by formulating policies and drawing up huge welfare spending plans according to the pre-election promises.

The budget, the most watched event in the country’s economic calendar, sparked more interest among the rich and the poor.

Government policies

Mr Mwiraria, a statistician and career civil servant, was well aware of the huge task of reconciling a budget with over Sh60 billion in deficits to an ambitious pro-poor spending plan.

The Government had for the first time waived school fees payable by public primary school pupils, a move that was lauded by donors who promised more aid towards the project.

Similar policies existed in the housing sector where the Government had promised 250,000 houses units for civil servants and a further 150,000 affordable housing units per year for poor citizens.

Other social sectors were also headed for an overhaul where 500,000 new jobs were promised, affordable subsidised healthcare for the poor, and a lesser tax burden far all.

In the mid of all the rhetoric on the economic recovery, few stopped to question how the Government would fund its new budget and how the ballooning debt, which at the time stood at 68 per cent of GDP was going to be trimmed down.

And 10 years later, despite a different cast, the script and stage remain the same. Mr Henry Rotich, the new Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury, readies himself to present the 2013/2014 estimates and the Financial Appropriation Act 2013 on the floor of House tomorrow.  

Alongside the Sh1.6 trillion spending plan, Rotich will be carrying a heavy burden similar to his predecessor ten years ago; one of financing the largest recurrent expenditure bill ever.

Already, the Sh1.6 trillion expenditure plan drawn out by the Finance Ministry two months ago allocated Sh1.01 trillion on Government ministries and departments.

Even though the Division of Revenue Bill 2013, awaits presidential assent, emerging expenditure demands threaten to burst the spending plan of the already cash-strapped Treasury.

When the Commission for Revenue Allocation (CRA) drew up the revenue sharing plan between the Central Government and the County Government, the proposal was for the former to set aside Sh210 billion to be disbursed directly to the counties.

However, Parliament slashed CRA’s proposal by 6 per cent stating that Sh198 billion was enough to start off the new administrative structures. And last week, the Senate came up with a proposal to increase county allocations to Sh238 billion.

As part of his campaign promises, President Uhuru pledged to provide free laptops to all primary school going students if elected into office.

With the initial phase of the project expected to kick off next year, the Treasury is faced with a Sh22 billion demand from the Ministry of Education to help finance the project, which is expected to cost about Sh75 billion.

Already, the Government has reached out to development partners and multi-national companies like Microsoft and Intel in a bid to ease the financial pressure on Treasury.

The Kenya Union of Post Primary Education Teachers (Kuppet), has issued a strike ultimatum if Parliament does not allocate Sh41 billion more to the education sector for employing some 40,000 new teachers and providing for leave and commuter allowances.

In his Madaraka Day speech two weeks ago, President Uhuru stated that the Government will fund maternity fees in public hospitals.

In the 2013/2014 financial year, the Ministry of Health has been allocated Sh14.9 billion in development expenditure, part of which is expected to be used to fund the free maternity services pledge.

As Kenyans waited in 2003 to see how the Government was going to pull off its arithmetic at the same time deliver the promises made, some of which have never been fulfilled, the same scenario is likely to play itself out tomorrow as the 2013/2014 financial estimates are tabled in the house.