By Morris Aron

Trouble on the horizon. A global food crisis looms large. But for Kenya, this is all too familiar a pattern — oscillating from the heights of a glut to the depths of starvation just a season apart.

For long, the perennial food shortage has typified the country’s mark of poor planning.

Emergency imports of cereals, notably maize, rice and wheat, have become an everyday thing.

But with domestic crops failing and severe drought scotching parts of the US — the world’s biggest maize exporter — food prices are set to surge to unprecedented levels.

The drought—which has just started receiving world attention — is expected to lead to a 30 percent maize production shortfall in a country that accounts for a third of all the world’s maize exports.

Now food experts are warning that developing countries such as Kenya are bound to suffer the most as economies around the world react to the development by banning food exports or engaging in panic buying to stock up on maize and other basic foodstuff.

Possible disaster

“Food prices are once again on the rise, passing the levels reached during the crisis of 2007-08 that pushed the number of hungry people in the world over one billion,” said a statement from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), last week.

“Poor people in developing countries spend between 50-80 per cent of their income on food, making higher prices, as well as unpredictable prices, a serious threat to their ability to eat – let alone continue spending on other basic needs such as health, or education.”

Already, closer home in South Africa, trade unions are up in arms over food prices that seem to have followed a similar trend as the global commodities market — upward-bound.

Last week, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) expressed outrage that maize prices had risen by 25 per cent since beginning June and are likely to rise even further.

“This is particularly worrying as maize is a staple diet for the poor majority of South Africans, millions of whom are already struggling to get food on to the table for their families,” said the statement.

Despite all these red alerts, the Government either seems unmoved or simply unaware of the unfolding scenario with so far no strategy to contain a possible disaster.

Reports indicate that maize harvests this year could be down by as much as 20 per cent after a disease in maize producing areas withered plants earlier in the year.

The disease — Maize Chlorotic Mottle Virus and Sugarcane Mosaic Virus — is said to have affected specific type of seeds of maize planted in the South Rift, Naivasha, Rumuruti, Nyamira and Embu — raising questions over a possible inferior maize seed variety.

Responding to the fears at the time, Agriculture Minister Dr Sally Kosgei said, “We will find a better variety of seeds that is resistant to such attacks but farmers must also think of alternatives instead of relying on maize year in year out.”

Kenya National Federation of Agricultural Producers (KENFAP) estimates that the country is likely to experience a deficit of about 10 million bags of dried maize up from the earlier projected 4 million this year as a result of the disease.

But even as the actual level of shortfall is discussed, revelations that the strategic grain reserve (SGR) is said to be way below capacity is raising eyebrows among food specialists especially in the event that the effect of the US drought boils over.

Strategic reserves

In April, it was reported that the Strategic Grain Reserves is short of six million 90kg bags of maize after National Cereals and Produce Board said its stores had only two million bags out of the eight million statutory requirements.

According to the NCPB spokesman Evans Wasike, the shortfall was as a result of farmers deciding to sell last season’s produce in the open market where they were getting higher prices than the Sh3,000 offered by the board.

Relief came in the form of a Sh1.6 billion allocated by the Treasury in June to special programmes minister to boost the strategic grain reserves.

Speaking during the budget statement, Finance Minister Njeru Githae stated that the money was to ensure that no Kenyan dies of hunger.

The move followed an earlier request by the Special programmes ministry of Sh1.5 billion to buy extra maize for the Strategic Grain Reserve money needed to increase the strategic grain reserves from the 2.3 million bags of maize to 8 million bags.

But while the money has been allocated, there is also concern as to how long the reserves will last as the country reportedly consumes 3 million bags of maize per month.

The looming effect of the new VAT Bill on the price of basic foodstuff twinned with the fact that millers collude to exploit consumers only makes a bad situation worse.

The worst drought ravaging the Midwestern US has seen the level of harvests drop and prices of maize, wheat and soybeans rise to record levels in a matter of weeks. 

According to the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), 62 per cent of US farms are located in areas experiencing drought.

In addition, about 40 per cent of maize and soybeans and 44 per cent of livestock are produced in areas experiencing severe drought.

Rising maize and soybean prices can cause an increase in other commodity prices as the livestock industry switches from maize to wheat for animal feed and consumers are forced to shift their consumption to other commodities like wheat. In the last two months, wheat prices have risen by 26 per cent.

Crop insurance

International Food Policy Research Institute is now recommending that developing countries crop production for the next season must be enhanced in order to reduce the effect of high and volatile prices on their national food security.

Innovations in financial services, for example, the use of modern communication technologies; risk-management mechanisms, such as weather-based index crop insurance; and institutional arrangements like social and rural knowledge networks are also imperative.

“Governments must act urgently to prevent rising food prices spiralling out of control – risking the sort of crisis experienced in 2007-08,” said a statement from FAO.

Additional reporting by Agencies