By Otuma Ongalo
It was a party launch whose pomp and sophistication had never been witnessed before in the history of our nation. Those who adore him watched with pride while those who abhor him were green with envy. Whether you hate or like Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, you could not afford to ignore his moment of glory when he unveiled The National Alliance (TNA) party and set standards for hosting major political functions. Last Sunday’s event was Uhuru’s big statement of political intent and a game changer in national politics. The son of Jomo, like Julius Caesar and his army, has already crossed the Rubicon and the stars are aligned for him, contrary to the odds against him.
There are three things that give impetus to sceptics of Uhuru’s political ambitions: He is the son of Kenya’s former President, he is a Kikuyu and is facing criminal charges in The Hague. Those conscious of his parentage argue that Kenya is not a monarchy. Those wearing tribal blinkers say the Kikuyu have already eaten; therefore the leadership mantle should be handed over to another community. Others, but quite selectively, argue the constitutional stipulation on integrity rules him out of the presidential race.
I neither support nor oppose UK’s bid for presidency. In Kamukuywa, TNA can as well be mentioned in the same breath as explorations on Martian territories. Here, folks still sing rhapsodies about the Lion Party, Ford Kenya, long after the lion lost its claws and roar.
Opinion polls have consistently placed Prime Minister Raila Odinga ahead of the other hopefuls in the presidential race. He is, and quite rightly, the man to win or to beat in the election early next year and you will be too naive not to appreciate this fact.
Forget the pretenders to the throne. The 2013 presidential race will be a two-horse race in the unfolding political drama. And the horses have already bolted from their stables – Raila and Uhuru. The rest are mere support cast or jokers. Following the rapid dwindling of Raila’s political fortunes, the oracle heavily tips the son of Jomo for the big post and this is a bitter or sweet reality, depending on how you perceive him.
Genuine as the odds against him may be, it will be a different ball game when the votes will finally be cast. Those who adore Uhuru will not focus on his pedigree or the enormity of charges levelled against him at ICC. In fact, politics being a game of irony, this may as well be his strength. He may not have reached this far politically had it not been because of the legacy of his father while his ICC woes could easily turn into massive sympathy votes.
The Uhuru support euphoria in Central Kenya has reached fever pitch. So loyal is the following that some leaders have sworn by the Bible to support him while others could not dare state their political inclinations as they patiently waited for Uhuru to show the way.
That Uhuru has the backing of the incumbent, President Kibaki, is a major boost. Kibaki has never stated this publicly but one must be too politically naive not to know in which camp the President’s heart lies in the crowded race to State House, as many pointers have indicated. For instance, this week he delivered Kibaki’s message during the funeral of Finance Minister Robinson Githae’s son. The gesture is significant. It’s almost unanimously accepted that none of the presidential aspirants is likely to have outright victory during the first round of voting.
The probable scenario, as reinforced by opinion polls and political mood, is a faceoff between Uhuru and Raila – or rather Raila against the rest. Raila could be an enigma in Kenya’s politics but not enigmatic enough to withstand joint onslaught waged by Musalia Mudavadi in Western, William Ruto in Rift Valley, Najib Balala in Coast, Kalonzo Musyoka in Eastern and Uhuru in Central, among several other political foes.
The youth vote will be crucial in the presidential elections and Uhuru commands a sizeable youth following among dotcom generation. Add to his financial muscle and the die is cast.
