By OSCAR OBONYO

Smarting from the exit of yet another political heavy weight, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, ODM has stepped up measures for political survival in Parliament.

From a united team that easily secured positions of Speaker and Deputy Speaker owing to its numerical strength during the Tenth Parliament’s first sitting in 2008, ODM has significantly shrunk in size and lost sparkle in Parliament.

The exit of Eldoret North MP William Ruto in 2009 alongside MPs mainly from his Kalenjin community, as well as Mudavadi’s latest departure with some MPs from his Luhya community, has greatly diminished the Orange party’s strength on the floor of the House.

Besides MPs from the two regions, others from parts of northern Kenya, Kisii and Coast led by former Tourism minister Najib Balala have also switched allegiance midway.

“With high-profile exits from his party, one gets the feeling there is no panacea to Raila’s political woes. He is a general with no lieutenants and the only thing that keeps him going is the brave face he wears,” says Joseph Magutt, a political science lecturer at Kenyatta University.

Other defectors
Unlike defectors from the rival PNU, such as Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, who are charting independent political paths, Mudavadi and Ruto have joined forces with the PNU grouping. Although in competition with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Premier Uhuru Kenyatta, Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and Ruto, among others, Mudavadi is yet to poke holes at their presidential bids.

Instead, he has joined the Raila-bashing team. If latest events including Mudavadi’s inaugural rally in Nakuru are anything to go by, then Raila should expect more brickbats from the combined PNU force now reinforced by his former deputy party leader, in and outside Parliament.

Observing that members on PNU side of Government “ordinarily vote freely depending on the issues”, Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale faults ODM for what he terms a tradition of voting as a bloc.

“But because their numbers are diminished, they may not push through their agenda in Parliament. Even at Cabinet level, the inclusion of Eugene Wamalwa gives PNU an additional slot, not to mention Mudavadi, who may no longer be persuaded to vote alongside ODM,” says Khalwale.

But the Joint Government Chief Whip Jakoyo Midiwo doubts that MPs will ignore issues and vote along party-lines: “We (ODM) have a tendency of bringing forth Motions that are of public interest and I do not see MPs voting against certain Motions simply because they have been sponsored by ODM. They can do that at their own risk, considering they are facing an election soon.”

At the same time, the party’s National Executive Committee has instructed the party leader to replace Mudavadi as DPM. According to Deputy ODM Secretary General Joseph Nkaissery, the party should fill the position as Mudavadi has switched camps.

“The positions of DPM are political and were brokered during the power-sharing deal to be shared between ODM and PNU sides of Government. While Mudavadi has denounced ODM, his counterpart Uhuru (Kenyatta) remains part of PNU.

Our side of Government simply wants to replace an individual who has vacated our party’s slot,” argues Nkaissery.

But compelling Mudavadi to relinquish the DPM will be ODM’s first hurdle in Parliament. Such a move is now a mountain to climb for Raila as it would require he raises two-thirds majority in Parliament to initiate a vote of no confidence in Mudavadi, who has declined to voluntarily leave office.

The next battle for ODM may involve its Secretary General and Medical Services Minister Anyang’ Nyong’o. His ministry is under scrutiny by the House Committee investigating the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) scandal where monies are alleged to have been channelled to phantom institutions.

But Mudavadi’s style to play hardball on Raila and softball on other fellow presidential hopefuls has confounded many. Describing him as a “chocolate soldier” who can easily melt if exposed to a lot of political heat, Magutt says Mudavadi needs the shield of numbers to fight on.

Besides, the political scientist explains Raila is an obvious target of every aspirant because he a major political force with the zeal and networks to get him to State House: “If you want to dare a ‘Yokozuna’ to a wrestling duel, you do not face him alone and certainly Mudavadi will not.”

Terming the exit of Mudavadi as inconsequential, Midiwo says he has dealt with more challenging periods before and successfully juggled his way through as the Orange party’s team leader in Parliament.

“Even as everyone focuses on what ODM has assumedly lost, do we care to check facts on the rival PNU side? If Mudavadi has left with four or so MPs from our side, then Kalonzo has equally bolted out about 16 MPs from PNU. There is a free flow movement and nobody is certain about who has more numbers,” claims the Gem MP.

Magutt adds: “Mudavadi and Ruto have exposed Raila and he is clearly vulnerable. He now needs to avoid situations where he puts himself on the spot.”