By Dominic Odipo
As the days turn into weeks, the raging political supremacy war between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his former deputy, Musalia Mudavadi, is beginning to take on some game-changing components.

What some ODM strategists originally saw as some fleeting Mudavadi aberration is now threatening to transform itself into such a powerful political wave that all who stand before it in the former Western Province could be swept into Lake Victoria. Make no mistake.

Last week, Ben Washiali, the legislator for Mumias, announced that he was switching his allegiance from ODM and Raila Odinga to Mudavadi. Two weeks earlier, two of the region’s most vocal MPs, Ababu Namwamba and Fred Gumo, had declared that they would stay in ODM and work very hard to consign Mudavadi to the political dustbin.

Which way is the political wind vane in the former Western Province or Luhyaland blowing? Who, between Raila and Mudavadi, is likely to annihilate the other politically in this pivotal political battleground?

If political power in a democracy is ultimately about numbers, then let us look briefly at the region’s latest political demographics and see what conclusions one can logically draw from them.

Both Namwamba and Gumo spring from Bunyala on Lake Victoria or what is now called Budalang’i Constituency. According to the National Population and Housing Census held in August 2009 the total population of Budalang’i Constituency at that time were just under 67,000.

The comparative figures for the other Luhya constituencies in Busia County were: Funyula,  94,000; Butula, 122,000; and Nambale, 206,000. As you can see, Budalang’i, from where both Namwamba and Gumo spring, is the most politically insignificant constituency in Busia County in terms of raw numbers.

This means that Namwamba and Gumo’s spirited public support for Raila amounts to very little in terms of the actual number of votes they can mobilise on the ground in Busia County for ODM.

home of the Bukusu
The biggest numbers in the Luhya part of Busia County will be found in Bukhayo or Nambale Constituency which is more than three times as large as Budalang’i constituency and whose MP, Chris Okemo, has already publicly expressed his support for Mudavadi’s presidential bid.

Now take Mumias whose MP abandoned ODM for Mudavadi last week. According to those same Census figures, by the end of August 2009, Mumias Constituency had a total population of 212,000, again, over three times the size of Ababu Namwamba’s Budalang’i.

If you add on here the neighbouring Matungu Constituency with a total population at the time of 146,000 and which generally votes in tandem with Mumias on such matters, then the larger or old Mumias Constituency had a total population of almost 360,000 in August, 2009, almost six times the size of Budalang’i.

This means that in terms of the potential voters likely to be gained by Mudavadi and lost to ODM, Washiali’s defection from ODM is much more significant that Namwamba and Gumo’s efforts combined.

Staying with these figures, two of the largest constituencies in Kakamega County, apart from Mumias, are Lurambi (297,000) and Malava (292,000).

As the ODM strategists in Kakamega may already have noticed, the sitting MPs for both of these constituencies, Manyala Keya for Lurambi and Soita Shitanda for Malava, have already aligned their resources behind Mudavadi.

In Bungoma County, home of the Bukusu, the biggest Luhya community, the largest constituencies in terms of numbers at the end of August, 2009 were Kimilili, with 320,000 people and Sirisia with 244,000. Again, both the sitting MPs for these constituencies, Eseli Simiyu for Kimilili and Moses Wetangula for Sirisia have already come out on Mudavadi’s side.

Of course it is quite possible that these MPs’ actions do not reflect the real will of their constituents or that these Census figures have no direct positive correlation with the numbers who will actually vote on polling day in this region.

The point is that any ODM leader or strategist who does not consider these figures carefully might be taking a very big political risk.

singular exception
How will the Luhya vote in the 2013 presidential, parliamentary and other county elections?
For all sitting MPs and aspiring candidates in this region, this is now the 30-million-shilling question. Choose the wrong side and the political ground could disappear from under your feet overnight.

In 2002, when the Luhya began smelling the presidency indirectly through Michael Kijana Wamalwa, they voted overwhelmingly for Ford Kenya, the party of Wamalwa’s choice. As a result, Wamalwa won every parliamentary seat in Luhyaland with the singular exception of Nambale, which Chris Okemo held onto by the skin of his teeth.

Will there be a new Mudavadi wave in 2013 akin to the Wamalwa wave of 2002? Given what is already happening on the ground in western Kenya, it appears as if that wave has already began building.

The writer is a lecturer and consultant in Nairobi.
dominicodipo@yahoo.co.uk