Opposition coalition accuses Museveni of militarised electoral coup

Opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine. [File,Standard]

A coalition of opposition groups and civil society leaders has accused Uganda's government of orchestrating what they call a "militarised power grab" during the 15 January general elections.

In a statement on Monday, January 19, the groups demanded the immediate release of detainees and international sanctions against the ruling regime.

The Pan-African Solidarity Network, alongside regional civil society organisations, released a joint statement on Monday rejecting President Yoweri Museveni's declared victory with 71.61 per cent of votes, alleging the result was predetermined through what they term a "special algorithm".

Museveni, 81, who has been in power since 1986, secured 71.65 per cent with 7,944,772 votes, whilst opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, known as Bobi Wine, received 24.72 per cent with 2,741,238 votes. The victory extends Museveni's rule to a seventh term.

Voter turnout stood at 52 per cent, the lowest since Uganda's return to multiparty politics in 2006.

"What occurred four days ago was not an election; it was a premeditated power grab and a military coup against the sovereignty of the Ugandan people," the coalition said in the statement.

The groups claim the Electoral Commission (EC) inflated the national voter register to 21.6 million to match ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) membership figures, alleging some individuals appear more than 50 times in registration records alongside deceased persons and minors.

The coalition points to mathematical patterns in the results, noting the margin between Museveni and Kyagulanyi grew by exactly 2.79 million votes from 2021, when Museveni won 58.64 per cent, and Kyagulanyi secured 34.83 per cent.

The coalition says this matches Museveni's earlier claims of votes "stolen" from him in the previous election.

"This can only be possible by a special algorithm of a predetermined result," the statement read.

The groups condemn what they describe as systematic violence during the electoral process, claiming at least 50 citizens died, including 10 people killed during a 16 January military raid on the home of National Unity Platform (NUP) Vice President Muwanga Kivumbi in Butambala district.

The coalition alleges security forces and a militia group called the Ghetto Brigade, led by Major Emmanuel Kutesa and Chris Damulira, conducted widespread intimidation, including chasing NUP polling agents from stations, confiscating Declaration of Result (DR) forms and attacking citizens carrying national flags.

"The sanctity of the ballot box was desecrated through a coordinated campaign of state-sponsored terror aimed at opposition agents and independent observers," the statement said.

The groups claim Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) and special security units moved beyond providing security into "active criminal interference", deliberately sabotaging Biometric Voter Verification Kits (BVVK) that cost billions to enable announcement of results bearing no resemblance to actual DR forms from polling stations.

The statement details arrests, including NUP Vice President Lina Zedriga from her home in Gayaza, parliamentary candidate Bright Muhumuza and NUP Electoral Committee Chairperson John Sebuufu, whilst Kyagulanyi remained under house arrest during the counting process.

Museveni changed the constitution twice to remove age and term limits, allowing him to extend his decades-long rule.

The groups specifically criticise the African Union (AU) and East African Community (EAC) observer missions for endorsing the results, calling the AU's 17 January congratulatory statement to Museveni "a profound betrayal of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance".

"By endorsing a declared result of 71.61 per cent whilst the nation was plunged into a total digital blackout and Robert Kyagulanyi's family remained under illegal house arrest, the AU has signalled that it values the survival of autocrats over the lives of African citizens," the coalition said.

The statement accuses the EAC Election Observer Mission of producing a "sanitised whitewashing" of events by failing to report the Butambala massacre, disappearance of local observers and ballot stuffing in locations like Mityana district.

The coalition demands the immediate release of all political prisoners, activists and those reported missing, estimated at more than 1,000 people. It calls for international travel bans and asset freezes against what it terms "architects of electoral fraud" and heads of security agencies.

The groups urge Ugandans to "stay steadfast" in pursuing what they call freedom from "decades of military dictatorship and family rule", framing the disputed election as part of a broader continental struggle against authoritarian governance.

"The fight for freedom in Kampala is a fight for the future of our continent," the groups said.