Why Shinyalu could be the next battlefront for Raila Odinga, Musalia Mudavadi

By Stephen Makabila  

Kenya: Four months after the Opposition CORD vanquished Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani coalition in the Bungoma senatorial by-election, another chance has emerged in which Amani may even the scores or be handed another political defeat in its Western backyard.

Nullification of the election of Shinyalu MP Silverse Anami Lisamula (ODM) last week has awaken political players in the region in readiness for a by-election whose date may soon be set by the Independent Electoral and Boundary Commission (IEBC) if the Supreme Court upholds the Court of Appeal ruling.

Mudavadi says the coalition and the United Democratic Forum (UDF) party are ready for the contest and that ODM leader Raila Odinga and CORD should forget Shinyalu constituency.

“We lost the seat due to violence and now that there is a chance for a re-run, Shinyalu is ours to take and ODM should forget it,” Mudavadi told The Standard on Sunday.

Mudavadi said UDF was strong in Shinyalu and had even the highest number of MCAs in the constituency (three elected and five nominated) and that its candidate Justus Kizito Mugali  was sure of carrying the day.

“Logically, Kizito has been on the forefont and has fought a good battle. As a party, we cannot discount all these factors when it comes to nominations,”  added Mudavadi.

He said UDF MPs in Kakamega County were in consultation on how best to conduct campaigns and win the seat, noting Amani coalition partners will support the UDF choice in the race.

There are, however, fears that Kakamega Senator Bonny Khalwale (UDF), could go against the grain and support ODM if a by-election is called.

Khalwale had last December also defied UDF and supported Ford-Kenya and CORD in the Bungoma senatorial by-elections, a move that did not go down well with the UDF leadership.

 Mudavadi was not, however, ready to comment on the Khalwale factor,  saying he was yet to hear him state where his support will be.

It is expected Raila will not sit back and watch as Shinyalu is snatched from the party, but the question remains whether his fellow CORD co-principal, Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula, will join the campaigns, if ODM fails to support his party’s choice in Nyando, Jared Okello.

Suna East MP Mohamed Junet (ODM) has been on record as asking Ford-Kenya and other CORD affiliates to stop fielding candidates in ODM strongholds in coming by-elections.

Junet argues even Kakamega and Busia counties in the former Western Province are ODM strongholds because the party has leading support in the two counties.

On Friday last week, the Court of Appeal sitting in Kisumu nullified the election of Lisamula as Shinyalu MP.

Three Appellate judges ruled that there was violence in Shinyalu on the eve of March 4, 2013 polls that affected the outcome of the election.

The High Court in Kakamega had upheld Lisamula’s election in October. The Appellate judges, in their ruling, faulted the High Court judge for dismissing an application by the petitioner,  Kizito, for scrutiny and recount of votes.

Despite Lisamula having moved to the Supreme Court, Kizito  who is a close Mudavadi ally said he was confident of winning the seat he held until the last election and urged Shinyalu voters to rally behind him in exchange of visionary leadership. Alex Khamasi, a UDF nominated MCA, said the party has an upper hand given three elected MCAs and two nominated MCAs were ready to campaign for Kizito.

“Kizito should be given a direct UDF nomination ticket when the by-elections finally come. He has fought to have the election of Lisamula nullified and he should therefore not be subjected to any primary process,” added Khamasi.

Kizito when reached by The Standard on Sunday said he was confident of victory in the repeat elections, since he was robbed of victory through violence last year.

“Am in UDF and if the party decides that I be offered direct nomination, then its well and good. What I want is peaceful and violence-free campaigns and elections,” added Kizito. But the expected by-election may be tricky for UDF and Amani, given on December 19,  2013, they lost in the Bungoma Senatorial by-election to Ford-Kenya and CORD.

Last December,  Wetangula reclaimed his seat with resounding victory against Musikari Kombo who had been fronted by the Amani coalition leadership under Mudavadi and former Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa.

The Shinyalu seat, which falls in Kakamega County, may draw political fireworks given the county is dominated by ODM and UDF elected leaders.

The governor Wycliffe Oparanya for example is from ODM while the Senator Khalwale, is from UDF. Raila, the ODM leader, will therefore be expected to lead the Orange brigade in attempting to help Lisamula salvage his seat.

Navakholo MP Emmanuel Wangwe said UDF and Amani MPs will camp in Shinyalu to support their candidate to carry the day.

ODM MPs in the county include Andrew Toboso (Butere), Dr Enock Kibunguchy (Likuyani), and Rachael Ameso (County Women Rep),

UDF MPs are Benard Shinali (Ikolomani), Ben Washiali (Mumias East) and Ayub Savalu  (Lugari).