In the end little may change after Brexit

So far the referendum vote in the UK to leave the EU is just a political act — one that can be ignored but there are still lots of things to play out before the impact is fully understood.
Ultimately everything hinges on the law — and in particular UK using Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Everything — trade, foreign relations, all EU laws — stay the same until that Article comes into force. Article 50 gives the UK and EU two years to negotiate a leaving agreement — and even if something cannot be agreed — the UK would leave anyway.

PM Cameron, during his statement announcing intention to resign on Friday, made it clear that it will be the next Conservative PM, not him, who will be left to carry out that process. That means at least three months until the two-year clock is started.

So, for the time being UK-EU-Kenya stays the same, I believe. And in the longer term it may be surprising how little changes.

The decision about when to implement Article 50 will need to be seen as part of an overall part of the negotiations with the EU. Politics at the edge is about making what seems impossible, possible. Three months is a long time, and a lot can happen. Some are talking about a second referendum. Some are saying now a reform of the EU needs to be seriously talked about. Some say that the decision to start Brexit could be delayed for a while.

That this decision is sending shock waves round the world no one can be under any doubt, so decisions will be made carefully. Already news agencies are reporting an Obama-Cameron conversation, and a Hollande-Merkl call, all because of Brexit.

Yet, the underlying forces that drive foreign relations, the trade and investment that people and businesses inside Europe, the UK and elsewhere remain unchanged. Those forces want jobs, commerce and business to continue, and the UK and EU rely on those activities continuing. There will be temporary uncertainty but this is not a cliff edge. As a political decision, it is all manageable. The UK and EU need to prove they are resilient and can adapt to the democratic voices but we will all be surprised how institutions can quickly adapt. UK and EU will be keen to maintain confidence that life goes on.

The EU-Kenya relationship is broad and significant, and will remain unchanged for the time being. It encompasses trade, security, development etc. That the UK is the largest trader, investor, security partner of the bloc is a reality. That does mean there will — in due course — be an impact but it should not be overstated.

The fundamentals, going back over decades, of the UK or EU relationship with Kenya is about trade. Brits buy and sell many goods and services with Kenyans because they want to. As a force behind the relationship that is very powerful, many people and institutions will want to make sure that there is as little negative impact as possible.

All the UK’s trading arrangements, laws, taxes and regulations are currently set by EU law. That will not immediately change. The UK wants to keep its trade relationship with many, many countries and Kenya is important in that system. Indeed, there may well be opportunities to grow the beneficial relationship with the UK. Kenya will no longer have to negotiate with the institutions of Brussels.

That the UK has invested in one of the largest diplomatic missions in Africa, in Nairobi, is evidence that it sees the bilateral relationship being very important. And other areas of mutual interest and partnership, such as security and development will probably see little change.