As the battle for Nairobi’s gubernatorial seat shapes up, certain political realities are also emerging. The two main coalitions, Jubilee and Coalition for Reforms and Democracy, are determined to be in control of the city.
The Jubilee candidates who have come out so far don’t seem to have convincing attributes, traction and credentials to convince the electorate. As such, a quick political arithmetic shows out that Kidero’s biggest headache would be a Luhya on a Jubilee ticket.
A Luhya alliance with the Mt Kenya communities is something any credible political analysts would call a sure way to victory.
It’s worth noting that the only other community that held the mayoral seat since 1963 up to the Mwai Kibaki era other than Kikuyus were the Luhya, who led the City Council between 1967 and 1971 under Isaac Lugonzo.
The Luhya’s grip on city politics has been significant since the advent of multi-party politics. After 1992, Fred Gumo won Westlands; John Mutere won Makadara on Ford Asili, replacing another Luhya, Fred Omido.
In Mathare, where allegations of rigging had taken place during the general election, had the election of Ford Asili’s Dr Munyua Waiyaki nullified. This occasioned a by-election that saw Ford Kenya’s Dr Fredrick Sikuku Masinde, who was voted for posthumously, emerge victorious.
Between 1992 and 1997, Luhyas occupied Makadara, Westlands and Mathare constituencies out of the total of eight constituencies.
Current demographics put the Luhya community second after Kikuyus. The recent voter registration drive reflected the Luhya community as second in position with 357,000 after the populous Mt Kenya community in Nairobi that now has about 700,000 registered voters.
The Luos are third in position at 312,000. The fact that both CORD and Jubilee nominated two Members of the County Assembly each from the Luhya community is quite telling on the fight for the Luhya vote in the city. For Jubilee to defeat Kidero at the ballot, the party needs a knock-out punch by presenting a formidable Luhya candidate to be supported by the Mt Kenya vote bloc.
Jubilee Party could consider the former Speaker of National Assembly Kenneth Marende, former Vice President Musalia Mudavadi or Water and Irrigation Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa as possible candidates.
Marende is respected as a person who left a mark as the Speaker of National Assembly because of what was then christened as his ‘Solomonic wisdom’. His non-partisan approach earned him fame, respect and honour among Kenyans. The disadvantage however is the fact that he comes from a minority Luhya sub-tribe that is very much ODM leaning.
Mudavadi on the other hand is a former Vice President and presidential candidate in 2013, but having made an attempt at the presidency, he may decide to give it another attempt as opposed to swallowing his pride and running for the Nairobi governorship under Jubilee. The third option would be Water Minister Eugene Wamalwa, who comes from a political family.
Wamalwa comes from the populous Bukusu sub-tribe of the Luhya that has traditionally voted with the Mt Kenya communities. Eugene, currently holding the Water and Irrigation Cabinet docket, seems to enjoy good relations with both President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
The three of them were all in the group that started the campaigns to succeed President Kibaki. There is a high likelihood of New Ford Kenya, URP and TNA amalgamating into the yet to be formed Jubilee Party.
It is therefore highly likely that if Jubilee Party were to field a Luhya for the Nairobi governorship, Eugene Wamalwa would be the most attractive and viable candidate.
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