Discrepancies in voter registration worrying

On the evening of July 15, US President Barack Obama said his agenda was two-fold in response to a question by a White House correspondent on his thoughts regarding his visit to Kenya — “to encourage the expansion of democratic space and reduction of corruption inside that country, that incredibly blessed and gifted country.”  

Yet, in answering the above question, he chose to underscore the fact that economic, good governance and political development are linked. I agree with President Obama that however much we focus on laying foundations for a strengthened, entrepreneurial nation, sustainable economic development cannot thrive in a dysfunctional political system.

Deep in the countryside as in urban settings across the country, there’s growing concern and bitterness arising from perceptions that the preparations to and conduct of the 2013 General Election were neither credible, accountable nor free and fair, yet we are fast approaching the next elections without tangible consensual, structured process by the State, stakeholders and captains of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to agree on areas for reform of the electoral infrastructure.

Granted, Kenya has travelled a checkered path in rebuilding institutions of governance after the 2008 post-election violence. Part of the envisioned reforms was establishment of an independent electoral commission to ensure the false start witnessed after December 2007 election never recurs. So many issues have arisen pointing to the conclusion by analysts that the integrity threshold on the conduct of 2013 elections was below par.

Whereas it is not my domain to enter a new verdict outside that given by the Supreme Court on March 30, 2013, I would like to illustrate, with figures, why Kenya is facing a time-bomb in 2017, should the government through its National Registration Bureau, and the IEBC, fail to adhere to the provisions of the Constitution and issue citizens who have attained majority age ID cards and voters cards.

Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of a functional representative democracy. Importantly, only a franchised populace can freely exercise this important right – the right to vote in a government of their choice.

Fact is, there seem to have been either a criminal omission or a deliberate effort to disenfranchise swathes of Kenyans in the build-up to the voting day. Conspiracy theorists even developed what would later be termed by the mainstream media as ‘the tyranny of numbers’. In my opinion, this was coined to sway public opinion to a defeatist corner and clothe improprieties that were being occasioned by the system or stakeholders involved.

In opposition strongholds, several people who applied for ID cards never got them. Even so, the few that managed to have the cards were disenfranchised by IEBC from registering as several voters in many cases where one BVR kit would be shared, say, by four to five wards, missed out, whereas in other areas, each ward or polling station, had a BVR kit with more than enough personnel to register people.

Else, how does one explain the below mind-boggling discrepancies in registration of persons as voters? Mandera County (then) with a population of 1,025,756 and an estimated voting population of 478,207, registered the lowest figures of voters at 25.3 per cent of the projected turn-out, with 121,005 only, whereas Kirinyaga County with a population of 528,054, and an estimated voting population of 246,148 registering more than Mandera, at a whopping 106.7 per cent turn-out with 262,715 being registered.

Even Nyandarua County with only 596,268 as total, and estimated voting population of 277,980, had 252,889 (90.1 per cent) registered voters, still way ahead of Mandera which had almost twice its population.

Wajir County, with a total population of 661,941 and an estimated voting population of 290,470 only had a paltry 37.5 per cent turn-out at 110,286 being registered, yet puzzling is how Laikipia County with a total of 399,227 and an estimated voting population of 186,119, could register more than Wajir – at 95.1 per cent, with 170,267! Kakamega County, which had a population of 1,660,651 and an estimated voting population of 774,194, registered 568,813 voters (73.5 per cent), yet Kiambu County with less, at a total population of 1,623,282 and an estimated voting population of even less — 756,773, pulled an overshot of 860,716 at 113.7 per cent.

And take the case of Bungoma County with a total population of 1,375,063 and estimated voting population of 641,053 registering 411,981 (64.3 per cent), whereas Murang’a County with a total population of 942,581 and an estimated voting population of 439,431, registered 457,052 (104 per cent), way ahead of Bungoma. Another shock is when Turkana County, with a total of 855,399, estimated voting population of 398,786 registered only 120,345 (30.2 per cent), yet a juxtaposition against Tharaka, with much less — total of 365,330, estimated voting population of 170,317, registered 155,823; way more than what Turkana recorded. A few parliamentary examples of this skewed registration would also suffice.

Mbita with a total of 111,409, estimated voting population of 51,939 only registered 37,809, whereas Othaya with a total of 87,384, estimated voting population of 40,734 registered 46,793. Even Kiambu at a lesser total of 108,698, estimated voting population of 50,675 registered more than Mbita, at 58,517 (115.5 per cent). Kanduyi with a total of 229,701, estimated voting population of 107,086 registered 77,096 (72 per cent) was still way behind Mathira, which had a lower total of 148,847, estimated voting population of 69,392, registering a miraculous overshoot of 80,221 (115.6 per cent).

Another amazing scenario is Mbeere North, with a paltry total of 89,035, estimated voting population of 41,508 having registered 36,423 (87.7 per cent), yet Mandera West with 161,701 had 16,605 and Mandera South with 247,619 only registered 10,600 (9.2 per cent) out of a possible 115,440. I could go on and on but my search of critical answers in this respect only led me to more questions as to who might have sanctioned outright acts of fraud by IEBC in playing oversight to a skewed, unfair and unconstitutional exercise of one of its core mandates — to register all qualified Kenyans.

The government must issue ID cards to applicants, as this is no longer just political, but a matter that currently bears on economic empowerment and development of the youth.