Obama uphill task to navigate delicate Kenya, US relationship

Barack Obama may not get quite the rapturous welcome he did when he visited Kenya as a senator back in 2006, but his presence in his ancestral home is something of a coup for the Kenyan leadership, and he can expect a warm reception.

Kenya has never had a sitting US president visit before, and, understandably, there is a sense of enormous pride.

For the Americans, this is a golden opportunity to gain some leverage at a time when security threats posed by the Somali Islamist group Al Shabaab bind both nations together. From a personal standpoint, it is a time for Obama to build on his legacy in Kenya.

Without doubt, President Obama is trying to "recalibrate" the relationship between the US and Kenya after some difficult diplomatic times.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta was up until recently indicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague for charges relating to a previous election.

That proved problematic for the US president, whose envoy warned President Kenyatta as he campaigned for the presidency back in 2013 that there would be "consequences" as a result of not trying to clear his name first.

Months later, Obama delivered a significant snub to Kenya, bypassing the country altogether during his last African tour. It was deeply felt in Kenya. Kenyans saw it as a personal affront, and the diplomatic sidestepping was met with a ratcheting up of anti-Western sentiment by the leadership.

But the charges against Uhuru have now been dropped, in part due to the Government's apparent "lack of co-operation" with the court. It would appear that all is forgiven, and the words of warmth have returned.

Uhuru confirmed as much in a pre-visit briefing, when he made it clear his US guest was expected to meet his deputy, William Ruto, who still faces charges at the ICC.

Defeat terrorism

The imperative of working to defeat terrorism would appear to trump matters of international justice. In diplomatic speak, they call it "essential contact".

President Kenyatta said "the fight against terror will be central" to bilateral talks, and pointed out that Kenya had "been working in very close collaboration with American agencies" and was expecting to "strengthen" ties during the visit.

That policy of appeasement is certainly something many security watchers in Kenya have sensed.

Peter Alling'o, from the Institute of Security in Nairobi, believes the US is seeking to restore close relations with Kenya, in order to gain a stronger foothold in the region's security apparatus in the face of Al Shabaab attacks. It may also help to ensure a few more contracts go America's way, he said.

China and its eastern neighbours now play a bigger role in Kenya - not only in building roads and railways but also in the important area of defence procurement. So what will the Americans be hoping to get out of bilateral talks on security, and what about the Kenyans?

Kenya will be able to continue to count on the Americans for "closer military support, training and procurement of hardware", says Alling'o.

In return, by offering a growing sense of "confidence and trust" in the Kenyan security forces, he believes the American objective is to "penetrate the Kenyan intelligence services more deeply".

It is a delicate relationship and one President Obama will have to navigate carefully. The Americans have some misgivings about what many see as the heavy-handed approach applied by Kenyan security forces to the country's Somali community. But the country's leaders are likely to respond better to gentle persuasion rather than public humiliation when it comes to policy matters.