Can Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua turn tables on Kalonzo in Ukambani?

Dr Alfred Nganga Mutua, the flamboyant Governor of Machakos County, is a master showman.  He is, frankly, one of the best propagandists Kenya has ever produced. Governor Mutua believes, like most media mavens, that image is everything. His knack for the spotlight has no parallel in Kenya. A media hog, Dr Mutua will go to any length to win public adoration. He creates hype.  As the saying goes, he believes he can sell ice to an Eskimo.

But there’s only one problem – people can see Dr Mutua coming a mile away. His thirst for power and ambition – which I don’t knock him for – is an open secret. That’s why he’s on a collision course with Kamba political supremo Kalonzo Musyoka.

There’s trouble brewing in what Kenyans call Ukambani. Mr Musyoka, the CORD co-principal and Wiper honcho, has sought to stamp his authority on the Kamba Nation. The blue-eyed boy of the ancient Kanu State, Mr Musyoka was the regime’s trusted lieutenant in the region. He was a protégé of the illiterate, but cunning, New Akamba Union (NAU) leader Mulu Mutisya. NAU was the regime’s vehicle for whipping the Kamba Nation into line.

Even so, the Kamba never fully succumbed to Kanu. That’s how Mwai Kibaki’s DP made huge gains among the Akamba in the 1992 elections. That’s how Lands CS Charity Ngilu – later lovingly known by the moniker Mama Rainbow – became Kitui Central MP and Mr Musyoka’s nemesis.

Within Narc, and later in the PNU/ODM coalition government, Mr Musyoka and Mrs Ngilu were mortal public enemies. At first, principle was at stake – the former was viewed as conservative, the latter progressive. But Kenyan politics aren’t driven by ideology.

Soon, the two fell into the tribal pit as each tried to become the Kamba kingpin. In the 2013 elections, Mr Musyoka got the better of Mrs Ngilu as his Wiper party swept Ukambani. Mrs Ngilu lost but was rescued from the political ledge by President Uhuru Kenyatta and elevated to the Cabinet. That’s how she avoided a sure political death. But Mrs Ngilu is a ghost of her former self, and is no match for Mr Musyoka.

With Mrs Ngilu out of the way, Mr Musyoka sought to consolidate his grip over the Akamba. But two things have worked against him. The first is that he holds no elected office. Even though Wiper has most Ukambani MPs, many seem to openly defy him. Second, devolution has weakened political parties. That’s why the three Ukambani governors – Makueni’s Kivutha Kibwana, Kitui’s Julius Malombe, and Dr Mutua of Machakos – don’t have to take orders from Mr Musyoka. They feel answerable to those who elected them, not to Mr Musyoka, the unelected party boss. The governors pose a more poignant clear and present danger to Mr Musyoka than Mrs Ngilu ever could. They have all the tools to politically neuter him.

This is where Governor Mutua comes in. Of the three Ukambani governors, he’s the hungriest politically, and the most savvy.  He’s emerged as their leader. He also has long ideological and deeper ties with Jubilee. Don’t forget that he was Government Spokesman for President Kibaki and worked closely with Kenyatta in PNU.

It is not a secret that the governor only ran on a Wiper ticket – as opposed to TNA – because he knew that it would carry Ukambani. But no sooner was he elected, than he turned his back on Mr Musyoka. That rift has become a valley as Mr Musyoka solidified his alliance with ODM’s Raila Odinga in CORD. Dr Mutua has never had any use for Mr Odinga.

It’s no secret that many Ukambani MPs are restless within CORD and lack a solid opposition spine. This anti-Musyoka faction has coalesced around Dr Mutua who is forging an alliance with Jubilee.

Dr Mutua is now in open revolt against Mr Musyoka and takes every opportunity to show his allegiance to President Kenyatta. Both Dr Mutua and President Kenyatta see a mutual benefit in their alliance. It allows Jubilee to choke the life out of Mr Odinga’s CORD in Ukambani. For Dr Mutua, it gives him the best path yet to capture the leadership of the Kamba Nation. Dr Mutua believes this is the only way he can be a presidential contender, or a credible candidate as a running mate.

It remains to be seen whether Dr Mutua’s dalliance with Jubilee is nonsense on stilts which can take steps without collapsing.  For one, Mr Musyoka is a wily operator with decades in politics. He’s no greenhorn in Ukambani politics. Dr Mutua risks being branded a turncoat. That’s particularly true if President Kenyatta does not go to Ukambani bearing goodies.

Dr Mutua’s ability to supplant Mr Musyoka will depend on whether he can look less frivolous, principled, and less gimmicky.

We won’t wait long to find out.