ODM not dying anytime soon, it will weather storm

It says a lot for the character and personality of Raila Odinga that the mention of ODM is incomplete without his name. From petty disagreements on the streets among ODM supporters to equally petty and routine operational hiccups at Orange house, cynics don’t feel fulfilled unless they drag Raila’s name in sludge.

Depicting opponents negatively is the oldest trick in the book hence, reading too much into it denotes naivety.

A meeting between presumed CORD mavericks Ababu Namwamba, Alfred Mutua, Magerer Langat and Gideon Mun’garo at a Coast hotel got tongues wagging. These gentlemen have been accused of refusal to toe the party line, and of getting a little too cosy with Jubilee for comfort. The veracity of this claim has not been established for they have denied allegations of impropriety.

Ababu is an astute lawyer conscious of the consequences of a rash decision to switch sides at this juncture. I am persuaded he is not a coward and the heat inside ODM will not make him scamper for safety. Ababu and cohorts are testing the party resolve, trying to assess whether they carry enough clout to force a confrontation before quitting, if it comes to that. This ploy is fashioned after what Adolf Hitler attempted with the workers party, NSDAP when its executive committee sought an alliance with the rival German Socialist Party in 1921.

Hitler did not approve of it. An acclaimed orator and great defender of party ideals like Ababu; Hitler took a gamble and submitted his resignation.

Those who acknowledged Hitler’s value to the party freaked at this move and prevailed upon him to reconsider; which he did, but on a brazen condition that he replaces party chairman Drexler. The demand was assented to. Knowing the Secretary General’s seat in ODM is up for grabs; could Ababu be trying to bring ‘baba’ round to assuring him of the post in exchange for not quitting?

I believe there is no likelihood of an equivalent to the 1923 ‘Beer hall putsch’ which Hitler engineered to ‘restructure’ the government being repeated at Orange house. For his troubles, Hitler spent a year in jail but came out to later lead Germany. Hitler’s failure was occasioned by his impulsiveness. Though he convinced General Erich Ludendorf to support him, he attempted to get Bavaria’s State Commissioner Gustav von Kahr’s support through coercion.

Gustav, while pushing a clandestine agenda, agreed but withdrew his support once Hitler had committed himself. Whereas it is easy to equate Ababu with Hitler, who, among the other three; Mungaro, Mutua and Langat, would take the place of Gustav in an ‘Orange putsch’?

ODM is not dying anytime soon, unless, of course, Raila decides to personally throttle it. He did that with the Liberal Democratic Party and sent Kanu into a coma after dealing it a blow to the head. Nobody else has the wherewithal to kill ODM, not by leaving in a huff. The threat of young turks breaking away to form a splinter group is not earth shattering. Political parties come and go; another one in the offing is not exactly news.

Here, a party that doesn’t have its foundation in a dominant tribe is a non-starter. How far has anybody who quit ODM, except for William Ruto who is riding in Kenyatta’s boat, gone? Unless someone is anxious to be appointed to the Cabinet or join Kalembe Ndile’s Tip-Tip and Raphael Tuju’s Progressive Peoples party in political oblivion, or Dalmas Otieno and Musalia Mudavadi in their party tribulations, staying put is more viable for the quartet.

Ambition is good, but only if it is matched with a compelling character and immense appeal. ODM’s euphoria in Nyanza, Coast and Western where it remains unchallenged swept many to positions of leadership. It would be a monumental error of judgement if one, for instance, believed he could make it to Parliament in Nyanza on a Jubilee ticket. Conversely, expecting to be elected to Parliament on an ODM ticket in Gatundu is stretching imagination too far.